U.S. arms manufacturers appreciate President Trump’s inclination to cut deals with overseas buyers. They are less thrilled by his unpredictable foreign policy moves, or his occasional slights and shots at long-time allies.
Recent weapons megadeals with Middle East countries have been cheered by Trump administration officials and U.S. defense contractors. These sales are viewed as crowning achievements following years of painful negotiations, but they are also politically fraught. And they are causing some anxiety on Capitol Hill.
“Does the president know that we are selling Qatar $12 billion worth of fighter jets?” Rep. Ted Lieu, D-Calif., asked a State Department official Thursday during a hearing of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Trade.
Qatar is under an Arab embargo and has been accused by Trump of funding terrorist groups and of being too cozy with Iran, but nevertheless, the U.S. government inked the sale of Boeing F-15 fighters. U.S. arms contracts with Qatar have totaled $14.6 billion since 2010, according to the Center for International Policy.
“How do you square the fighter sale with what the president has been saying about Qatar?” an exasperated Lieu asked Acting Assistant Secretary of State Tina Kaidanow.
Her answer: It’s complicated.
“The fighter sale to Qatar has been an ongoing deliberation,” she said. Foreign military procurements of this magnitude are carefully vetted from all angles, she noted. Ultimately, this one came down to the U.S. government’s desire to help Persian Gulf nations bolster their security posture against Iran. “The Qataris face threats primarily from Iran that we need to assist them with,” Kaidanow said.
Lieu’s expression was one of puzzlement. “It’s very confusing when the Trump administration does two opposite things.”
Similarly, the United States has agreed to tens of billions of dollars in future arms sales to Saudi Arabia, a country that has been charged with committing horrific war crimes against civilians in Yemen. Several lawmakers at the hearing pressed Kaidanow and Vice Adm. Joseph Rixey of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency to explain how that decision came to be.
“This has been an ongoing evaluation,” she said. “The Saudis have recognized it’s problematic and they have made commitments to us” to stop targeting civilians.
Members of the Senate this week unsuccessfully sought to block a $500 million sale of Boeing precision-guided bombs for the Saudi Royal Air Force.
“The concerns about the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen are real,” Kaidanow said. “But we clearly believe there’s an interest in providing Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Gulf capabilities to counter serious threats posed by Iran and other salient threats we see in the region.” The Saudis “have given us commitments that we consider serious and credible,” she added. “They recognize they have to improve their performance in Yemen.”
The kingdom is spending $750 million to train its air force pilots to more carefully vet targets and avoid civilian casualties. The package also includes training in the international laws of conflict. “The idea is to help them,” said Kaidanow. “It’s better to do that than to stand back. The Saudis do face threats on their border with Yemen.”
William Hartung, a national security analyst at the Center for International Policy, said the administration would continue to walk a tightrope regarding arms sales to the Middle East. In addition to the chaos in the Gulf, countries including Turkey and Egypt buy U.S. weapons, even if it’s “not clear if they’re on our side,” he said.
Most U.S. military sales are going to the Middle East, where the majority of conflicts give rise to grave human rights concerns. It is questionable whether selling Saudi Arabia a $750 million training package will change the situation, Hartung said. “They should know how to avoid civilian casualties without a huge training program. The same applies to teaching them the laws of warfare. You would think that should be a precondition to selling to them.”
The U.S. foreign military sales program could come under growing political scrutiny as conflicts continue to rage in the Middle East, Hartung said. “I can’t think of a period when we saw so many conflicts at the same time, in the same region, with so many players receiving U.S. weapons.”
For American firms, there is the prospect of significant new business. Between 2016 and 2021, Middle East nations are projected to spend many more billions on defense. Estimates by the consulting firm Avascent: Saudi Arabia, $129 billion; Oman, $15 billion; United Arab Emirates, $41 billion; Qatar, $35 billion; Bahrain, $3 billion; Kuwait, $12 billion; Iraq, $36 billion; Jordan, $4 billion; Egypt, $16 billion.
Political reservations aside, members of Congress generally support U.S. arms sales as they help sustain the defense industry’s 1.7 million workforce nationwide.
In 2016, the United States sold $33.6 billion in military equipment and training packages.
The president’s inconsistent actions so far are not fazing U.S. arms makers, said Andrew Hunter, defense industry analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The industry is still at this point more interested in the potential that the president’s focus on doing deals offers,” Hunter said in an interview. “It is a net positive so far,” he noted. “The possibility is there for some of his most controversial statements to be a complicating factor. But until there’s actually a deal that gets torpedoed as a result of that, the optimism is still outweighing the concerns.”
Foreign military sales do not turn on a dime, even in these fickle times. “Deals are incredibly long lived. They take years to negotiate,” said Hunter. And after weapons systems are sold, the United States commits to maintaining and supporting them over decades. “That is why you see them carry on, notwithstanding the vagaries of the day.”
Sometimes sales are put on hold for political reasons, “but rarely are things knocked off track.” That said, “If a deal fell through as a result of Trump’s actions, that would change industry’s calculus, but we haven’t seen that yet,” Hunter said.
Hartung recalled that the Obama administration halted the Qatar fighter sale in response to Israel’s objections that it would affect its military technological advantage in the region. After Obama signed a $38 billion aid package for Israel, he lifted the hold on the fighter sale to Qatar.
Foreign sales are surprisingly lengthy and multifaceted efforts, Hartung said. “There is something mysterious about the process.”
Sandra Erwin is a national security and defense reporter for RealClearDefense. She can be reached at serwin@realcleardefense.com. Follow Sandra on Twitter @Sandra_I_Erwin.
