President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump are scheduled to visit India next week, February 24 – 25, 2020.  The Trumps will travel to “New Delhi and Ahmedabad, which is in Prime Minister Modi’s home state of Gujarat and played such an important role in Mahatma Gandhi’s life and leadership of the Indian independence movement,” according to a White House Press Release.

The year that led to the planning of this Presidential trip has been anything but a sentimental journey.  The age-old dilemma in such encounters - what happens when an unstoppable force (President Trump) collides with an immovable object (New Delhi Government – the Indian Deep State)?  Each would require every scrap of energy to prevail against the other.  Or nothing changes.  For a President elected on a populist mandate of protecting American jobs and enforcing fair trade rules, India’s “developing country” designation under international development programs is an unacceptable refrain. While the President out-maneuvered the Chinese use of the same designation to justify abusive trade practices, India may yet pose his biggest challenge.   

As they did with China’s President Xi, the Trump Administration’s low-grade trade war with India has been calibrated with well-choreographed bonhomie between Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi.  But with one characteristic difference – Donald Trump’s outreach to Hindu Americans, both before and after his election.  Hindu American political appointees are ubiquitous in the Trump Administration, including high profile perches such as the FCC Chairman, CMS Director, and Undersecretary of State for Economic Affairs.  A Hindu American Trump Nominee replaced Justice Kavanaugh at the District of Columbia Court of Appeals, the customary pipeline for future Supreme Court nominations.  At a September 2019 Houston Texas rally for Prime Minister Modi, that was organized by local Indian Americans, President Trump remarked to a cheering crowd of 50,000: “Every day Indian-Americans help write the story of American greatness … Everyone here has a crucial role to play in an even greater American and Indian future.” The President polls well among Hindu American voters, who are among his fastest growing support base, and can indeed help him win the 2020 election, not just in Texas, but in critical swing states such as Florida, Michigan, Colorado, and Virginia.

Regardless, President Trump remains an unstoppable force in forging “America First” trade agreements.  Pratik Chougule, a security policy expert, observes: “The Bush and Obama administrations largely bracketed the [trade] issues to facilitate a partnership in other areas such as defense and civil nuclear cooperation. Progress on these fronts, they calculated, would build the confidence and political capital necessary to ameliorate more divisive trade dilemmas.” However, President Trump chided India in a July 9, 2019 tweet: "India, for years having put very high Tariffs against the United States, just recently increased the Tariffs even further. This is unacceptable, and the Tariffs must be withdrawn!”

The Trump administration has levied tariffs on Indian steel and aluminum imports, blocked India’s oil imports from Iran, threatened sanctions to dissuade India’s purchase of advanced Russian-made S-400 missile defense system, deter Huawei’s foray into India - the world’s second largest internet market - to build its 5G network, unceremoniously removed India from the Generalized System of Preference Program (GSP) that allows low tariffs on Indian exports to the U.S., imposed countervailing duties against India’s alleged currency devaluation, and filed a consultation request before the World Trade Organization (WTO) challenging India’s high import tariffs due to its status as a developing country.

A bill titled “Fixing Global Freeloading Act” (H.R. 2209), introduced by Trump-ally Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC), now making its way through the legislative process, designates India and China as “foreign governments that fail to appropriately reward United States innovation with respect to pharmaceuticals.”  In its bilateral negotiations with India, the Trump Administration demands India lower its import quotas on U.S. agricultural goods, remove price caps on U.S. medical devices such as heart stents, stop the outsourcing of generic drug manufacturing by Indian companies, enforce intellectual property protection, particularly for American pharmaceutical patents, and rectify fraud and abuses in H1B Visas for Indian high tech workers.      

To date, the Indian deep state remains an immovable object.  Joining the President and Mrs. Trump on next week's India trip is the dream team of Hindu American Trump appointees.  However, the much anticipated mini-trade deal to be signed by President Trump during his India visit next week now looks like a micro-deal: India’s purchase of $2.6 billion worth of military hardware (24 Seahawk [MH-60R] helicopters) from Lockheed Martin.   The question remains as to why American Presidents overlook their bargaining chip with India, which is the American security guarantee in Afghanistan that counters the regional hegemonies of China, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan.  With President Trump’s unstoppable force, a significant US-India trade agreement is possible in his second term.

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Sue Ghosh Stricklett is a widely published author on topical issues concerning National Security Law.  A graduate of the Catholic University of America School of Law, she has practiced law for the past twenty five years.