A new book that cuts through hype, ignores moods and intellectual
trends, and focuses on the epochal forces shaping the region.
One of the sharpest observers of Asian geopolitics has written his first book: Bilahari Kausikan’s The Myth of the Asian Century has just been released by Penguin Random House Australia and is the latest in the Lowy Institute Papers series.
As you will see in the launch interview below, Bilahari is not just a shrewd analyst of regional affairs but a delightful conversationalist. I was honoured to edit the book and delighted to talk to him about the major themes.
Lowy Institute Papers are designed to be read in one or two sittings. We find top analysts from around Australia and the world to write about the pressing issues of the day in a way that speaks to the intelligent general reader.
As editor of this series, I’m always attracted to contrarian arguments that will give readers a “record scratch” moment of questioning some previously unexamined belief. In that regard, the decision to publish Kausikan was easy – the title alone offers the record-scratch moment, particularly for Australian readers who can remember the term “Asian Century” becoming central to foreign policy thinking, thanks in part to the “Australia in the Asian Century” White Paper in 2012.
That White Paper emphasised economic opportunity for Australia – as Melissa Conley Tyler put it a decade later, it was a “profoundly optimistic document” – and it’s safe to say no Australian government would produce a similar white paper today, given the change of mood and the emphasis on military and economic security.
One of the strengths of Kausikan’s analysis is that he’s immune to public moods. His analysis is neither optimistic nor pessimistic, and he is sceptical of intellectual trends. “There is nothing new under the sun”, this book seems to say. The Asia that Kausikan describes is one of constants, of epochal forces and of tectonic plates.
He argues that the term “Asian Century” is too easily co-opted by China to make its rise seem incontestable, as if scepticism about China’s ambitions is tantamount to swimming against the tide of history. It also reinforces the Chinese narrative that the West, led by the United States, represents the past and China the future. But the United States will remain a decisive presence in the region, Kausikan says. As you would expect from an astute Singaporean diplomat, he in no way throws his lot in with the United States – Asia is comfortable with, and well suited to, multipolarity.
And Australia, you ask? Kausikan is relaxed. As you will read in the book and hear towards the end of the interview, he thinks Australians worry too much about their place in the region.
Sam Roggeveen is Program Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program. He is the author of The Echidna Strategy: Australia’s Search for Power and Peace, published by La Trobe University Press in 2023.
This article appeared originally at Lowy Institute's the interpreter.
