Andrew W. Marshall (1921 – 2019) developed methods to analyze long-term geopolitical and military competitions at the RAND Corporation (1949-1973) and then as founding director of the U.S. Department of Defense's Office of Net Assessment (ONA) from 1973 to 2015.  Many now forget that RAND abbreviated Research ANd Development and, according to Guy Stever (Chief Scientist of the U.S. Air Force 1955-1956),  Research Applied to National Defense. Delphi and other forecasting techniques, and Monte Carlo statistical modeling, and applied these together with historical knowledge and common sense to advance defense economics and largely invent nuclear strategy and deterrence. As the Pentagon’s internal think tank, the ONA has profoundly shaped USA Cold War strategy through unconventional economic and military analyses, red-teaming perceived risks and resilience, and anticipation of ways that information technology would transform militaries. This essay is based on one of a series of interviews conducted by Melissa Flagg and Smiljana Antonijević of the Andrew W. Marshall Foundation to help build a picture of Marshall’s work and influence.

Are oil and gas exhaustible?  Do resources become scarcer or more abundant?  Is the ocean still a place to hide?  Are the rise and fall of empires predictable?  Have humans reached our peak performance?  These were among the questions I explored with and for Andy Marshall over the last two decades of his life.  However, the main purpose of this essay is not to repeat my responses to these questions but to explore what distinguished Andy as an interlocutor.  Let me begin with the origins of my career and the paths that led to involvement with national security and Andy