Why Tungsten is Crucial to the U.S. Military

Dwindling tungsten stockpiles pose a direct threat to U.S. warfighting capacity. As of March 2026, tungsten prices have increased 557% to $2,250 per metric ton unit since February 2025. As conflicts in Ukraine and Iran rapidly burn through U.S. supplies of tungsten, most notably used in the Patriot and THAAD missiles, finding additional tungsten sources is imperative for U.S. defense. As tungsten prices run critically low while demand for U.S. missile production reaches historic highs, U.S. policymakers must seek to establish new tungsten supply lines. Emerging tungsten markets such as Kazakhstan and South Korea offer the U.S. defense industry a strategic lifeline.

The U.S. must pursue a multi-pronged diplomatic strategy aimed at developing new sources of tungsten. Kazakhstan, which holds the world’s largest tungsten reserves outside of China, should be the centerpiece of this strategy.

Massive new tungsten sources in Kazakhstan provide the U.S. with a potential alternate source. Kazakhstan has an estimated two million tons of tungsten reserves, 1.3 million of which are located in the Upper Kairakty and Northern Katpar deposits. Both deposits are being jointly developed by U.S.-based mining investment firm Cove Capital LLC and Kazakh state mining company JSC Tau-Ken Samruk under a November 2025 agreement. The agreement, which formed part of a U.S.-Kazakh critical minerals Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), is backed by letters of interest from the U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) and the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC). The formula of DFC and EXIM-backed private investment creates a strong model for building future U.S. tungsten supply chains—particularly in emerging markets such as Kazakhstan, where U.S. government support can reassure otherwise risk-averse investors.

But China is also intent on securing Kazakhstan’s tungsten reserves. Chinese-owned Jiaxin International Resources’ massive Boguty mine in Kazakhstan, the world’s fourth largest tungsten deposit, began commercial production in April 2025 and has since largely driven a 20 percent increase in tungsten production outside China. China maintains a strong interest in Central Asia’s critical mineral resources more broadly and seeks to invest in the region both to strengthen its hold over global mineral supply chains and to counterbalance the growing U.S. commercial and diplomatic presence.

While China seeks to expand its hold over Kazakhstan’s tungsten, increased U.S. cooperation with Japan and South Korea offers a path towards counterbalancing Chinese investment. Both Japan and South Korea signed separate critical minerals memorandums with Kazakhstan in 2024 and are heavily involved in exploring the nation’s mineral wealth through technical assistance and geological exploration. 

Separately, the South Korean Sangdong tungsten mine’s March 2026 opening provides a major opportunity to increase global tungsten production. After reaching its full expanded production capacity in 2027, Sangdong is expected to produce 4,600 annual metric tons of tungsten, equating to over 80 percent of global non-Chinese tungsten production. Owned by Canada-based Almonty Industries, the mine is anticipated to ship heavily to the U.S. while also supporting South Korea’s semiconductor chips industry. South Korea’s government has also established a price floor for Sangdong’s produce, insulating the operation against Chinese price-dumping, a tactic successfully used by Beijing to discourage Western investment in commodities such as nickel, lithium, and rare earths. By insulating its tungsten production against Chinese price manipulation, South Korea adds a further layer of protection to its tungsten supply line to the U.S., creating a strong model for future U.S.-linked foreign tungsten projects. 

Without adequate tungsten supplies, U.S. forces may soon face critical shortages of their most vital missiles. Stockpiles of the tungsten-dependent Patriot and THAAD missiles are at an all-time low in the wake of the U.S.-Iran war and accelerating tungsten shortages could produce potentially catastrophic results for the U.S. military. This is especially important in potential confrontations such as with China over Taiwan. In the absence of an aggressive U.S. supply chain expansion aimed at tungsten-rich markets such as Kazakhstan, the U.S. military will continue to risk military disaster in the event of a major conflict.

John Connor is a senior analyst at TD International, a Washington, DC-based geopolitical risk consultancy, where he focuses on strategic advisory projects across a variety of sectors including energy and critical minerals.