A New South Korean Government & Washington's Strategic Impatience

On St. Patrick’s Day 2017 newly appointed Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said, “Let me be very clear: the policy of strategic patience has ended.” This should come as no surprise to anyone that has been paying attention. President Trump said very pointedly that he would not follow the foreign policy of the Obama administration. To Trump’s credit, he is correct not to. The policies of President Obama, mirroring those of Presidents Bush and Clinton, have led us to a situation in which one of the most unstable regimes in the world is in possession of nuclear weapons. 

In 1993-1994, during President Clinton’s term, the North Koreans initiated a crisis when they declared they would withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Almost precipitating a war to stop the North Koreans from obtaining nuclear material but ended with the Agreed Framework, an agreement that rewarded the North Koreans with concessions but saw no tangible slowing down of its development of nuclear arms. 

When Barack Obama entered office, North Korea detonated a second nuclear bomb in 2009. Reminiscent of Bill Murray’s movie, “Ground Hound Day,” the West offered additional bribes, North Korea promised to be good, but the same results occurred. North Korea took the bribes, its leaders bought more luxury items for themselves, launched more missiles and detonated nuclear bombs.

What is very different and new this time around is that North Korea will most likely gain the capability to launch a nuclear weapon-tipped missile to Hawaii in the coming months.

This type of threat from the North Koreans to the homeland of the United States is startling. Moreover, it is the direct result of the failure of the soft power policies, bribes and delusions of the West of the last 20 years.

But for the South Koreans, this type of threat is not new.  They have been living with the fear of a direct attack upon their homeland since 1953.

South Korean Perspective

The armistice signed in 1953 ended open conventional warfare on the Korean peninsula. The war that preceded the armistice left approximately 2 million South Korean dead and wounded, and almost every village and city totally devastated from the ravaging armies that fought savagely up and down the country. The extent of the damage left its populace shell shocked.

Since the signing of the armistice, the South Koreans have been on a constant war footing. Though the DMZ was established to separate the belligerent armed forces, this has not stopped the North Koreans from terrorizing its southern neighbors. The citizens of South Korea have been murdered and kidnapped; their planes hijacked; their politicians either assassinated or targeted for assassination; their territory raided and shelled. The madness that the South Koreans have tolerated and endured from the North Koreans is amazing. It shows how much they value peace and realize what destruction would take place if any incident escalated to full blown war.   

Despite all these headaches from the North in the past decades, South Korea has become an economic behemoth, climbing from number 30 in global GDP rank in 1960 to 13 in 2014.  The country’s companies and products are known throughout the world. Samsung, Hyundai, Korea Air and dozens of other company headquarters worth trillions of dollars in market capitalization are headquartered in Seoul, South Korea’s capital. 

Seoul is a major cosmopolitan city, where high-rises abound. The population bustles with energy building a prosperous and wealthy country. It’s the economic engine for much of Northwest Asia.

However, Seoul is only 35 miles from the DMZ. (The approximate distance from downtown Los Angeles to Irvine or New York City to Edison, New Jersey.) If a war is started by the North Koreans or by a preemptive strike by the U.S., thousands of artillery shells can rain upon the city at a moment’s notice. These might include chemical munitions and the nightmare scenario of a nuclear bomb. The resulting casualties in the densely populated capital would run to the tens of thousands of dead and wounded civilians in the first few days of a conflict.  

With the historical background of persistent hostile acts from the North Koreans, the South Koreans might be expected to err on the side of accommodating the North.   Through this lens they might ask themselves:

Is it worth the cost of total devastation to stop the North Koreans from producing weapons of mass destruction? What harm will a bribe do once in a while to keep the peace? North Korea will probably implode as the Soviets, and their allies in Eastern Europe did in the late 1980s and early 1990s.  It will probably be safe to wait them out.

The generation that survived the initial invasion and war with the North is dying off. With them, the resentments, hate, and memories are also dying. The younger generation has lived through relative peace with the North and has enjoyed the benefits of that peace. The average citizen enjoys a very bourgeois, middle-class lifestyle with all the thrills and toys of the modern world. They know they will be the direct casualties of any war and their homes will be destroyed if there is any misunderstanding or any act turns into a greater war.

With all this in mind, it is no surprise the South Koreans adopted the Sunshine Policy in 1998. With the backing of the Clinton administration, this policy emphasized co-operation with North Korea hoping that its generosity would sway the North. The policy included a joint economic area, the cross-border reunification of relatives separated since the war, and aid packages to alleviate famine conditions in the North. However, the South Koreans ended the policy in 2010 after they had realized it only fattened the pockets of the dictator.     

The recent impeachment and ejection of South Korean President Park Guen-hye on March 10, 2017, shocked the country and the world. With her departure, the U.S. must prepare itself for a left-of-center president that might return to policies such as the Sunshine Policy.

The front-runner candidate to be the next president is Moon Jae-in, a former chief of staff for former President Roh Moo-hyun. Moon is said to be more willing to co-operate with North Korea. Additionally, he recently said that the next administration should decide deployment of Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and the deployment of the system hurts relationships with Russia and China. China has already punished South Korea for the deployment of THAAD by blocking some tourist groups traveling to South Korea. Analysts predict this economic retaliation is just the tip of the iceberg.  

With this type of pressure exerted on the South Koreans, a once reliable ally might be at odds with U.S. policy in the region.

U.S. Reaction

The U.S. now needs to ready itself for a new South Korean administration that will not be fully aligned with any actions the U.S. might want to initiate, be it additional trade embargos, deployment of anti-missile systems in their country or most certainly, military first strikes.

Unfortunately, the U.S., once again, is reacting to circumstances.  It has to deal with the consequences of an unfinished war, appeasement type policies and wishful thinking by previous administrations that bad things will go away. Today this means that the U.S. has to accept the fact the North Koreans will have the ability to launch a nuclear capable ballistic missile at Hawaii in the near future. 

As such, it is critical for missile defense to be a prioritization for the Trump administration and overall U.S. national strategy. It can no longer appease, hope, bribe or wish for regime change in North Korea. It cannot be a party to any aid package to North Korea in the future.

The U.S. also cannot rely on a South Korea that will be aligned with our goals. South Korea has lived under the shadow of North Korean aggression for decades, and a new South Korean administration may not empathize with our concern of an attack on the U.S. homeland. While we should remain committed to the defense of South Korea, North Korea’s ability to threaten the U.S. homeland is a game changer.

Americans once again have to relearn the failures of appeasement. Hopefully, these lessons are applied to other countries (e.g., Iran) that try to develop nuclear weapons before it is too late, as it likely is with North Korea.

Sean P. Morrisroe served 10 years in the U.S. Marine Corps as an infantryman.  In his post-Marine Corps career, he has advised clients at various investment banks and firms focusing on mergers & acquisitions.  He graduated from UC Irvine with a BA in History and attended the London School of Economics.