Confronting America's Polar Icebreaker Gap

The Arctic is no longer just a frozen expanse—it is quickly becoming a geopolitical hotspot. As its ice diminishes, its economic potential has increased. Arctic shipping routes between the Atlantic and Pacific offer the potential to reduce travel times by up to 40%, and the area is estimated to contain 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30% of its untapped natural gas reserves. However, far less attention has been given to what is required for successful U.S. deterrence in the Arctic, particularly in countering Russia’s assertiveness.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to expand its icebreaker fleet to reinforce its regional dominance. Through its Project 22220 initiative, Russia is developing at least six nuclear-powered icebreakers: three already built, a fourth under construction, and two more in development. Decades of sustained investment have given Russia a commanding presence in the Arctic—one that the U.S. is currently unprepared to counter.

Delays and rising costs have beset efforts to modernize its Arctic icebreaker fleet. The Polar Security Cutter (PSC) program won’t deliver its first icebreaker ready until 2029. Unresolved design issues and rising material and labor costs have increased the price of the first three ships by 39 percent. As a result, the Coast Guard must spend $15 million per year to repair the aging Polar Star, which first entered service in 1976. The U.S. Coast Guard assessed that America needs at least eight icebreakers – four heavy and four medium ships – for its future polar missions. Without a shift in Arctic policy, the U.S. and its allies may struggle to counter Russia’s increasing influence.

Such a shift will require collaboration. Currently, the U.S. ranks 19th in global shipbuilding. Increased coordination with allies is essential to reduce costs, accelerate production, and innovate. In July 2024, the U.S., Canada, and Finland launched the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort (ICE Pact) to pool resources and enhance polar capabilities. While the ICE Pact is a key step in strengthening the West's Arctic strategy, further cooperation with NATO allies is needed, especially as a Pentagon report from July 2024 warned of growing Arctic ties between Russia and China.

Long-term icebreaker needs cannot be met without greater shipbuilding cooperation with allies. Two existing laws prevent the Coast Guard from building vessels or major components in foreign shipbuilding ports. The President can authorize an exception if it is in the national security interest – and this clearly is. Both Canada and Finland are close NATO allies with a shared interest in countering Russian power in the Arctic. If the President is serious about closing the force projection gap, exemptions to allow shipbuilding collaboration with our allies will be necessary.

In addition to icebreaker production, increased military cooperation with allies is crucial for effective deterrence. Access to Alaska’s Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson and Eielson Air Force Base has enabled the U.S. and its allies to conduct joint military exercises, such as the Arctic Defender exercise in July 2024, which involved approximately 500 personnel from the U.S., Canada, Germany, Italy, Spain, and France. Expanding exercises like Arctic Defender – particularly among other Arctic nations – would further bolster interoperability, improve operational readiness, and communicate collective resolve to deter adversaries.

The Coast Guard should also collaborate with commercial companies to expedite the design and construction of additional icebreakers. The U.S. Government Accountability Office found that delays in the Polar Security Cutter program were caused by beginning construction before the design was completed. Partnering with the private sector could streamline the process and accelerate production. While the U.S. ordered its first commercial icebreaker last month, more are needed to close the icebreaker gap. Alaska’s congressional delegation secured $125 million in funding for this purchase, but broader congressional support is essential to meet the full scope of Arctic security needs.

Polar ice may diminish, but tension over the Arctic will only increase as its strategic value grows. On September 10, 2024, Russia and China began a massive week-long "Ocean-24" joint naval exercise covering the Arctic Ocean, indicating that their growing alignment may extend to Arctic interests. Similarly, Russian military aircraft have been more frequently spotted in Alaska’s Air Defense Identification Zone, including three times in the last week. If the U.S. fails to make necessary adjustments, it risks losing its foothold in the Arctic and falling further behind Russia and China’s increasing military presence. A reinvigorated icebreaker procurement program and partnerships with allies are indispensable to closing the polar icebreaker gap to deter American adversaries before it's too late.

Kevin Zhang is a research assistant at the Yorktown Institute and a graduate student at Georgetown University, where he is pursuing an M.A. in Security Studies with a focus on Military Operations. He also holds a B.S. in International Politics from Georgetown University.

Farrell Gregory is a policy fellow at the Foundation for American Innovation and a research assistant at the Yorktown Institute. As a visiting student at Mansfield College, Oxford, studying PPE, he has published analyses of Chinese foreign policy and investment, critical minerals, and U.S. policy in Africa.