West Philippine Sea: Transparency Alone Won't Deter China

Publicising China’s actions has rallied Filipino support, but Manila still needs sharper messaging and stronger allies.

A few days prior, on 8 October, a China Coast Guard (CCG) vessel used water cannons on a Philippine medical mission to evacuate a Filipino soldier from the BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal. The BRP Sierra Madre is the Philippine vessel purposely grounded in Ayungin in 1999, in response to China’s militarisation of a nearby reef (Mischief Reef).

The Philippines and China signed a “provisional understanding” in 2024 to provide both sides with a predictable process and reduce the risk of miscalculation. Despite this, the Philippines confirmed on 25 September that the CCG and the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) obstructed a rotation-and-resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre. Another Philippine vessel, the BRP Datu Magat Salamat, sustained damage on 18 September after a CCG ship rammed it while en route to deliver fuel to Filipino fisherfolk.

Repeated intrusions and coercive action at sea are practically a staple in China’s tool chest in the South China Sea. Beyond these, however, widespread malign information campaigns on maritime issues in the West Philippine Sea challenge national security narratives and public trust in democratic institutions. Chinese messaging includes rewriting history, undermining the Philippines’ independence, and projecting a positive image through development projects. This approach gives China access to economic channels through elite influence and capture.

At the recent Forbes Global CEO Conference in Singapore, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said that the country is “resigned” to managing tensions with China and avoiding escalation. The stance is far from that of acquiescence. Indeed, the Philippines’ transparency approach replaces the previous policy of quiet diplomacy with public documentation and exposure of coercive maritime actions. Under the initiative, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) and the NTF-WPS actively publicise videos, photos, and reports of Chinese activities in the West Philippine Sea. By shifting attention to public exposure, the objective is to raise domestic awareness and combat disinformation campaigns. Likewise, the Philippines hopes to garner further international support for upholding the 2016 arbitration award.

While Filipinos generally view the approach positively, it is not a strategy on its own. The ultimate test is whether this transparency approach has changed China’s behaviour so far. The number of incidents and coercive manoeuvres in the last month alone indicates that the Philippines must level up its game.

Ferdinand Marcos Jr., President of the Philippines (Dean Calma/IAEA)

Beyond transparency, the Philippines can also do the following. The Marcos Jr. administration’s Comprehensive Archipelagic Defence Concept (CADC) laid the groundwork for substantive changes to Philippine military strategy by emphasising basing dispersion, ranged strike capabilities, and the use of geography. Because it could be seen as a “counter” anti-access/area-denial strategy to China’s posture, especially given the Philippines’ expansion of military positions near Taiwan, Manila needs to deepen its foreign military partnerships and integrate them into the archipelagic concept. Doing so would mean stating clear positions on basing access, weapons deployments, and in-theatre assets. Previous plans largely avoided these conversations to preserve strategic flexibility. However, now is the time to jump-start these discussions, which would require developing not only a theory of victory but also an effective strategic communications plan to translate strategic-level deterrence efforts into tactical and operational effect.

Second, the transparency approach is one way of combating foreign information manipulation and interference, but building situational awareness and exposure is only one step in a series of moves. The Philippines must coordinate messaging and actions around shared values, the national interest, and its red lines. It must learn – fast – to hold the semantic high ground). Words may be cheap, but words are the building blocks of narratives and discourses on which people’s identities are rooted and flourish. Alongside coordinating messaging and actions, the Philippines can work with partners and allies to strengthen digital regulations and tech accountability, given that most Filipinos rely on Facebook for news and information. Indeed, the country is considered the world's social media capital. Pushing for tech accountability must include private entities and state-backed or proxy media outlets to foster social and institutional resilience. These efforts can drive cooperation at various levels.

Finally, the Philippines should make the most of its 2026 Chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Although the year is almost over and the agenda and deliverables are already set, the Philippines must show its willingness to turn ASEAN from a mere convening platform into one with normative power. While ASEAN managed to bring in extra-regional powers and preserve the so-called long peace in Southeast Asia, that no longer holds true today. Without a solid response to Myanmar, the Thai-Cambodia border, or the South China Sea, the regional organisation will inevitably lose the centrality it holds dear. The norms on which ASEAN has stood since its inception – consensus and non-interference – reflected the realities of 1967, which are not necessarily the same today. As the 2026 ASEAN Chair, the Philippines should lead the discussions on the region’s normative gains. This can help revamp the organisation and update it to reflect today’s dynamics.

Charmaine Misalucha-Willoughby is a Professor of International Studies at De La Salle University in Manila, Philippines.

This article appeared originally at Lowy Institute's the interpreter.