Weekly Recon 8 July 2017

Good Saturday morning and welcome to Weekly Recon. On this day in 1853, Commodore Matthew Calbraith Perry, representing the U.S. government, sails into Tokyo Bay, Japan, with a squadron of four vessels. For a time, Japanese officials refused to speak with Perry, but under threat of attack by the superior American ships, they accepted letters from President Millard Fillmore, making the United States the first Western nation to establish relations with Japan since it had been declared closed to foreigners two centuries before.

Writing in the Washington Post, Tricia Bacon of American University offers her recent experiences in the region to show that al Shabaab won’t be going anywhere anytime soon. Barring a drastic change in the situation, the U.S. military is likely to remain in Somalia for the foreseeable future, especially following the expected withdrawal of African Union (AMISOM) troops in 2020. Although largely ineffectual, AMISOM has been responsible for the brunt of counterinsurgency operations in Somalia since 2007.

Does the U.S. Army Have What It Takes to Fight? –  The U.S. Army faces a daunting problem – its potential enemies are getting much better at challenging its ground-to-ground weapons systems. The Army once comfortably overmatched any potential adversary, but Sandra Erwin reported this week on the diminishing qualitative technological edge that the U.S. Army holds over its near-peer adversaries in ground combat. The Abrams tank is increasingly vulnerable to advanced anti-armor missiles. Russian anti-tank missiles outrange U.S. “armor by two kilometers.” Furthermore, Russia currently deploys land attack missiles that, in defiance of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, can travel over 500km. In comparison, the current U.S. long-range land attack rocket has a range that is less than 320km. 

The gaps have been identified, and the Army is taking steps to close them. As the Army receives more funds for modernization it tasking industry with developing better protection for its armor, as well as developing next-generation “long-range ground fires” capabilities. But the Army has a poor record of accomplishment when it comes to fielding new ground platforms. Furthermore, it is yet to be seen if the Army will prioritize growing the size of the force over modernizing weapons systems.

As adversaries close technological gaps in the area of ground-to-ground combat at ever increasing speeds, time is a luxury the Army can no longer afford. As Erwin astutely points out, “This is not just a budget issue, but also one of military strategy.”

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