Russia's Caspian Flotilla Gains an Air Arm

Until the Russian Federation launched a barrage of cruise missiles against Syria from ships in the Caspian Sea in October 2015 (see EDM, October 26, 2015), few people in the West devoted much attention to Russia’s Caspian Flotilla, viewing it, if at all, as a purely coastal defense force (Riafan.ru, May 26, 2019). But in the three years since then, that unit of the Russian navy—the Military Maritime Fleet (Voyenno-Morskoy Flot—VMF)—has dramatically expanded its capabilities and role in Moscow’s thinking. And that trend is likely to only increase now that the new head of the VMF is Admiral Nikolay Yevmenov, a former commander of the Caspian Flotilla (Polit.ru, May 9). Indeed, the Flotilla’s current commander, Admiral Sergey Pinchuk, recently announced that, for the first time, his naval force will include amphibious military planes and helicopters (Regnum, May 22).

Recent weeks have produced more evidence that the Caspian Flotilla, long an afterthought for Moscow and others, is becoming far more important. Even Chinese naval analysts have recognized this fact, which should say a great deal, especially given that the Chinese reportedly were especially impressed by the Flotilla’s use of short-range rockets (Politros.com, May 9).

Among the most important developments this spring are the following: the Flotilla has now built new housing for its much larger naval and marine complement (Pravda.ru, April 2, 2018; Md-gazeta.ru, March 28, 2019). Its training and operations are being integrated not only with the Southern Military District, of which the Caspian is a part, but also with the Southern Federal District that oversees part of Russia adjoining the always restive North Caucasus (Redstar.ru, May 27). The Flotilla’s training and operations have been dramatically increased compared to a year ago, and these activities have been covered by Moscow television, something that also sends a message (Tvzvezda.ru, May 20). And finally—and perhaps most notably—the Caspian Flotilla, which in the past was often left out of all-Russian military games and Victory Day celebrations, this past month has been given a prominent role in both (Tvzvezda.ru, May 19).

It is always good practice to avoid inferring intentions from capabilities, but it is certainly the case that Russia’s Caspian Flotilla now has more firepower and sea-land capacities than do the navies of any of the other Caspian littoral countries. And at least some in Moscow increasingly view this Flotilla as a force capable of intimidating other regional actors and with the potential to project power more broadly in the Sea of Azov or via cruise missiles still more widely. It is not just a search-and-rescue or constabulary force that its commander wants people to believe it is; the Caspian Flotilla is increasingly a military force to be reckoned with, especially if the conflict in and around Ukraine continues or if the discord between Iran and the United States should shift from a war of words to something more.

Paul Goble is a longtime specialist on ethnic and religious questions in Eurasia. Most recently, he was director of research and publications at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy. Earlier, he served as vice dean for the social sciences and humanities at Audentes University in Tallinn and a senior research associate at the EuroCollege of the University of Tartu in Estonia. While there, he launched the “Window on Eurasia” series. Prior to joining the faculty there in 2004, he served in various capacities in the U.S. State Department, the Central Intelligence Agency and the International Broadcasting Bureau as well as at the Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

This article appeared originally at The Jamestown Foundation's Eurasia Daily Monitor.