North Korea's Space Program Aims Higher

Earlier this week, North Korea reaffirmed that its space program is ongoing and getting more ambitious. There have been six North Korean satellite launch attempts since 1998. Only two have placed satellites in orbit, and both satellites failed to transmit. Clearly, there is room for improvement, so it is surprising that North Korea seems to be planning something very big for such a fledgling space program.

Getting to such a high orbit takes a rocket with a lot of grunt. Right now, North Korea hasn’t tested one. But there has been a lot of work on large launch support towers and other infrastructure at North Korea’s main satellite launch site. Boffins have been watching the ongoing work for years, waiting for some action.

Once again, a North Korean satellite launch would head towards Australia. Concerns will be raised by some media sources. But there really isn’t any significant risk for us from this launch. The rocket will either be in orbit when it passes over Australia or it will fail before it reaches us. It’s not entirely impossible for the rocket to underperform and crash somewhere in Western Australia, but most of it would be destroyed as it passed through the atmosphere.

This does not undermine the case for concerns over North Korea’s increasingly bellicose posturing and the rapid advancement of its nuclear capabilities. It is also true that there is a close connection between North Korea’s space program and its ballistic missile development. But it is unlikely that a satellite launch attempt will be used as a cover for a surprise nuclear attack.

Right now, North Korea hasn’t even succeeded in getting a satellite to work in low-earth orbit. This will need to be done before they can aim any higher.

Dr. Morris Jones is an Australian space analyst and writer.

This article appeared originally at Lowy Institute's the interpreter.