Russia Revisits an Old Cold War Battleground

Moscow looms large in sub-Saharan Africa's Cold War history. Across the continent, the Soviet Union competed with the United States and its Western allies for influence in a series of long-running proxy battles. Russia's interest in sub-Saharan Africa waned, however, after the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991. The region may have lost much of its geopolitical significance in the intervening time, but as the Kremlin asserts its influence in more and more conflicts abroad, sub-Saharan Africa presents Russia another opportunity to extend its global reach — should it so desire.

Russian and Sudanese leaders share a hostility toward real or imagined interference in their domestic affairs. They also harbor a mutual disdain toward institutions like the International Criminal Court, which issued an arrest warrant for al Bashir in 2009 for crimes against humanity. Furthermore, Sudan serves as an important cog in Moscow's strategy to contain growing extremism in countries such as Egypt, Libya and, to a lesser extent, Syria, while offering a market for foodstuffs and military hardware. A country of approximately 40 million people, Sudan has a voracious appetite for Russian grain — the Kremlin has promised to sell 1 million metric tons of grain to the country this year. It is no less eager for energy assistance, arms and ammunition. In November 2017, Sudan became the first Arab country to receive the fourth generation of Russia's SU-24 fighter jets as part of a deal for equipment upgrades and training worth an estimated $1 billion. That agreement could be a harbinger of more deals to come: Khartoum has struggled to manage its various internal conflicts for many years and may welcome the battle-tested expertise of more Russian military trainers.

Moscow's activities in Africa don't stop there, either. Other reports suggest that the Wagner Group may soon turn its attention to the Central African Republic. News that the company will deploy a contingent to the Central African Republic fits with Moscow's increasingly ambitious foreign policy. Russia has long used its arms industry and military prowess as a tool to enhance its influence around the world. Last month, it successfully lobbied the U.N. Security Council to let it send three shipments of light arms and ammunition to the Central African Republic's military despite an arms embargo that has been in place since 2013. Of little geostrategic importance, the African country relies on its former colonial ruler, France, for external support. With little competition on the ground, Russia stands to gain greater business opportunities and perhaps even increase its influence in the surrounding region by making inroads there.

These prospective forays into Sudan and the Central African Republic don't presage a full-scale Russian military deployment to Africa. Moscow seems more interested in filling its coffers through the Wagner deals than in preparing for a massive investment drive on the continent. Even so, the potential presence of a Kremlin-backed private military company in two countries in sub-Saharan Africa could pave the way for more robust Russian involvement elsewhere in the region.

This article appeared originally at Stratfor Worldview.