The Follies of the Victors

In the first chapter of The Gathering Storm, the first volume of his history of the Second World War, Winston Churchill lamented that the war resulted not only from the actions of the aggressor nations of Germany, Italy, and Japan, but also because of the “follies of the victors” of the First World War. If, God forbid, the current war in Ukraine and the rising tensions in the western Pacific escalate into a Third World War, future historians may, like Churchill, blame not only the aggressor nations of Russia and China but also the “follies of the victors” of the Cold War.

As the Russia-Ukraine War enters its second year, instead of looking for ways to end what is still a regional conflict, the U.S. and NATO have repeatedly declared that they will continue aiding Ukraine for as long as it takes for Ukraine to prevail. NATO Secretary General Jen Stoltenberg during his recent visit to Kyiv also proclaimed that “Ukraine’s rightful place is in NATO.” Stoltenberg noted that NATO has provided more than $165 billion in aid, and “are now delivering more jets, tanks, and armored vehicles” to Ukrainian forces. “NATO stands with you today, tomorrow and for as long as it takes,” Stoltenberg told Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky. The Biden administration also announced that it would provide $325 million more in security assistance to Ukraine, which will include ammunition for High Mobile Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), TOW missiles, small arms ammunition, precision aerial munitions, and other military equipment.

As NATO increases its involvement in the war, the alliance continues to expand, with Finland becoming the newest member and Sweden not far behind. But for some Western observers NATO’s current make-up and aid to Ukraine thus far is not enough. Timothy Garton Ash writing on the Foreign Affairs website envisions NATO and the EU as a “postimperial empire” that should include Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and even Belarus. Ash’s vision is: “the EU as a postimperial empire, in strategic partnership with an American postimperial empire, to prevent the comeback of a declining Russian empire and constrain a rising Chinese one.” Talk about hubris.

Perhaps Ash missed the significance of the visits of German Chancellor Scholz to China last November, and the more recent visits of the French and EU presidents to China which exposed divisions within NATO over the gathering storm in the western Pacific. The notion that NATO will help constrain China is a fantasy. And the further expansion of NATO to include Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and Belarus is tempting fate that a nuclear-armed Russia will just sit back and let it happen without broadening the war in an effort to prevent an ever-expanding enemy alliance at its doorstep.

The great American diplomat and historian George Kennan wrote about the “fateful alliance” in the late 19^th century that unraveled Bismarck’s structure of European peace and eventually led to the First World War--what Kennan called the “seminal catastrophe” of the 20^th century. If we are not careful, NATO--because of the “follies of the victors”--may become the “fateful alliance” that leads to World War III; and this time there will be nuclear weapons on both sides.

Francis P. Sempa is the author of Geopolitics: From the Cold War to the 21^stCentury, America’s Global Role: Essays and Reviews on National Security, Geopolitics and War, and Somewhere in France, Somewhere in Germany: A Combat Soldier’s Journey through the Second World War. He has written lengthy introductions to two of Mahan’s books, and has written on historical and foreign policy topics for The Diplomat, the University Bookman, Joint Force Quarterly, the Asian Review of Books, the New York Journal of Books, the Claremont Review of Books, American Diplomacy, the Washington Times, The American Spectator, and other publications. He is an attorney, an adjunct professor of political science at Wilkes University, and a former contributing editor to American Diplomacy. Mr. Sempa also writes a monthly column for RealClearDefense including his latest "Washington and Ike's Warning On Foreign Policy Greed"