The East-West Battle for Serbia

Serbia, like Yugoslavia, before it, has long been a major prize in the East-West struggle for ascendancy in Europe.  In this East-West rivalry there is no way to stop foreign influences from entering Serbia, at least not in the short-term, especially given its complex history since the collapse of Yugoslavia in the 1990’s.  Russia, for example, has carved out several niches of influence for itself in the media, energy, and defense sectors.

The EU calls this deal historic as it will help the EU attain its green energy agenda and reduce dependence on fossil fuels; it also, like the defense deal above, will further anchor Serbia’s economy to that of the West and facilitate its entry into the EU.  It is also a strategic deal for “There is no green transition in Europe without this lithium,” said Chad Blewitt, the head of Rio Tinto’s Serbian operations, adding that the company planned to invest more than $2.55 billion in the project.” Not altogether surprisingly, however, this deal has spurred a great deal of environmental protest inside Serbia from farmers and the rural population who are enraged at Rio Tinto buying up houses, orchards,  and the lands around the projected mine.

Although such environmentally driven protests are hardly news in Serbia or elsewhere; they have become a big issue leading Vucic to claim in defense of it that the protests represent part of a “hybrid approach of conducting ‘color’ revolutions” against Serbia, while the Kremlin argues that the protests are inspired by the West.  This claim, as Vucic well knows, is frankly nonsense.  What is more obviously the case is that Moscow, employing its Serbian proxies like the ultra-nationalist People’s Patrol, which has advertised its links to the Wagner Group, has taken advantage of this indigenous protest and evidently linked it to the supply of Western weapons to Serbia.  Reports from Ukraine confirm that these protests are backed by Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs as well as Russian proxies within Serbian state structures.  This presence of pro-Russian elements within state structures probably represents the reason why Vucic made these unfounded claims about “color revolutions.” By suggesting that the protests are “hybrid warfare” against Serbia, Vucic cynically sought to dampen the ability of far-right elements in Serbia, such as the People’s Patrol, to attract participants to the protests. It is these far-right, Russian proxies and their potential to destabilize the country that Vucic fears most.

Neither Washington nor Brussels nor key members of the EU like Germany should be dissuaded by these protests.  Deals like the critical materials agreement, as advertised, are historic and of the utmost strategic significance for they do “anchor” or tie Serbia much more closely to the West which remains the apparent priority of Vucic, who, however, for many reasons must continue to be perceived domestically in Serbia as playing the balancing game that has long been the norm in Serbian and before that Yugoslavian politics.  Vucic believes that, if he fails to maintain this perception of balancing, Moscow will be able to mobilize its dissatisfied proxies in the country to more actively counter his government and provoke large-scale instability.

Russia must be deprived of Balkan proxies by which it can subvert the integration of Europe that alone provides peace to that continent if not beyond as the war in Ukraine shows.  It also cannot be allowed to undermine not only Western integration but also democratizing trends in the Balkans, at large lest such outcomes fuel new wars there.  At the same time Europe must intensify its access to critical materials to maintain a competitive economy, while at the same time eliminating its dangerous dependence upon Russian energy.  Indeed, it is the dependence upon Russian energy that has given Moscow its entrenched presence in key sectors of Serbia beyond energy alone and allowed it to try and frustrate both integrationist and governance trends there.  With this agreement, in which the EU is developing Serbia’s lithium resources, the West is countering Russia’s malign influence in the Balkans. Preventing further Russian victories in Serbia or the Balkans is and must remain a vital priority for both Europe and Washington.  And the EU-Serbia critical materials agreement is a clear example of what can and must be done towards those ends.

Dr. Stephen J. Blank is a Senior Fellow at Foreign Policy Research Institute. He is an internationally renowned expert on Russian and Chinese defense policy. He is the author of "Light from the East: Russia's Quest for Great Power Status in Asia" (Taylor & Francis, 2023). He was a Professor of National Security Studies at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College.