The Axis of Upheaval Goes to Sea

Last year analysts discovered that an “Axis of Upheaval” comprising Russia, China, North Korea and Iran had come into being.  Although some analysts dismissed the idea of  an axis operating in some form of concerted action against the U.S. and its allies; as other experts analyzed this axis, they noted that its members usually acted bilaterally, e.g. Russia and North Korea exchanging troops and missiles for oil grain, and satellite technology. However, it has now become increasingly clear that not only do we find examples of concerted action we find that in some cases, we find members of this axis emulating each other’s attacks on American interests and collaborating in groups of two or three powers against Washington and its allies. In these cases, e.g., support for Iran and through Iran its proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, is now concentrating on attacking Western maritime targets. We can trace these trends with regard to probes against NATO members in the Baltic, the Houthis targeting of both Israel and international maritime trade through the Red Sea, and in the Indo-Pacific, specifically Chinese probes against Taiwan, and joint Sino- Russian naval probes against the Philippines, and Japan.

Russian submarines and ships have also apparently regularly probed the waters around the Philippines. As President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. observed, "All of that is very concerning" ---Any intrusion into the West Philippine Sea, of our (Exclusive Economic Zone) EEZ, of our baselines is very worrisome. So, yes, it's just another one."  Thus, this is a regular phenomenon that makes no strategic sense unless Russia is aligned with China regarding the South China Sea, a point that if true, should trigger action among littoral states, the U.S., and its Asian allies. Concurrently with these provocations we have a long-standing and ongoing record of Russo-Chinese air and naval probes against both South Korea and Japan.  Naturally these probes arouse heightened threat perceptions in both countries and in South Korea those are added to existing fears of North Korea.  Finally in 2024 we saw individual and joint Sino-Russian air and naval probes against Alaska.  These flights took off from a Russian air base and reflected what both sides called operations in a “new area of joint operations.” 

Thus, these operations and probes display a joint desire to intimidate Indo-Pacific states and expand their area of joint operations, obviously to push back American and allied naval power. If this is not alliance behavior, it is hard to determine what it is. Finally, in the Red Sea the Houthis, another terrorist organization has conducted a long campaign against both Israel, against whom it has launched 220 missiles since October 7, 2023, and international trade in the Red Sea.  As a result of these attacks international shipping costs have risen and Red Sea shipping has dramatically declined. Here again the incidence of support from Iran, who provides weapons and funds obtained from energy sales to China who is now offering them weapons, while Russia is now offering weapons and evidently has given the Houthis GPS and ship siting technology and may be angling for a base in Yemen is essential to their campaign.  As Elisabeth Braw has written, these actions transgress every concept of maritime international law even though Russia and China are members of the UN Security Council.

But beyond that, as Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery (USN, ret.), a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, this three-sided Iran-Sino-Russian cooperation, observes, “These reports of intelligence sharing between the Houthis and Russians — and the potential transfer of more capable anti-ship cruise missiles to the Houthis — is the natural extension of the evolving axis of chaos. China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and their surrogates, such as the Houthis, are conducting more and more exchanges of equipment, intelligence, and know-how.” Whether it be in Europe, the Middle East, or Asia the activities of the Axis of Upheaval or what Montgomery calls the axis of chaos are expanding, their cooperation is growing, their operational range and readiness to strike are expanding and this is now particularly noticeable throughout the world ocean. Thus, as Donald Trump takes office we and our allies are being attacked increasingly persistently and broadly, at land as in Ukraine and Israel, and at sea. And this is the overarching strategic threat that we must vanquish, starting in 2025.

Dr. Stephen J. Blank is a Senior Fellow at Foreign Policy Research Institute. He is an internationally renowned expert on Russian and Chinese defense policy. He is the author of "Light from the East: Russia's Quest for Great Power Status in Asia" (Taylor & Francis, 2023). He was a Professor of National Security Studies at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College.