An Alternative Grand Bargain for Trump: Bigger Win, Greater Leverage

While the international community has its eyes on President Trump’s efforts to bring the war in Ukraine to a close, and to resolve Israel’s conflict with Hamas, other security challenges, relegated to the background, are promising new challenges and opportunities for the remainder of the term. Iran, despite suffering heavy geopolitical blows in losing Syria and its access to supply chains and Captagon, and seeing its ally Hamas weakened by IDF, continues to supply Houthis with a steady flow of arms and other contraband. Iran’s regional ambitions have not waned, just shifted. Moreover, Iran has not backed away from its campaign of terror aimed at Jewish and pro-Israel communities around the world, focusing its attention on South Caucasus. A recent assassination attempt against a prominent member of the Jewish community in Azerbaijan, known for his role in strengthening Baku’s relations with Jerusalem, was foiled by the local law enforcement. The suspects, a Georgian and Azerbaijani nationals, fit the previous mold of Iran hiring foreigners to carry out its “wet works” operations in various countries.  

Iran’s aggression towards its neighbor has also manifested itself in direct threats to Baku, violent allegedly “independent” incidents involving an attack on Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran, and various other forms of belligerent behavior. Iran has been persistent if nothing else, but its efforts backfired, strengthening security cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel and contributing to Baku’s decision to open its embassy in Tel Aviv.  The recent series of events, far from estranging the two long-time energy, security, and cultural partners, has led to another major breakthrough. The recent meeting between President Aliyev’s top adviser Hekmat Hajiev and PM Netanyahu explored the possibility of strengthening trilateral relations between Azerbaijan, Israel, and US, and contributing to the expansion of the Abraham Accords.  To be clear, unlike UAE and Bahrain (and other prospective members such as Sudan), Azerbaijan has had normalized diplomacy with Israel for decades; simply signing off on another normalization statement would be meaningless, or in fact, a step down in terms of both optics and substance. However, Baku could play a crucial role as part of a triad focused on several high priority issues, and could also give Trump a major diplomatic victory in catalyzing, facilitating, and advancing relations with Middle Eastern and other Muslim majority states, and expanding and strengthening Abraham Accords

Deepening ties between Azerbaijan, Israel, and the United States—particularly within the broader framework of the Abraham Accords—could yield major strategic, economic, and technological benefits for all parties involved. Given Azerbaijan’s unique geopolitical positioning, strong energy resources, and historical cooperation with Israel, such an alliance could reshape regional power dynamics and enhance collective security and economic integration. Azerbaijan, which shares a border with Iran, provides critical intelligence and logistical capabilities that align with U.S. and Israeli interests in monitoring and countering Tehran’s activities.

The new framework could also give teeth to bilateral, trilateral, and multilateral security cooperation. Israel and the U.S. could bolster Azerbaijan’s military modernization by expanding sales of drones, missile defense systems, and cyber capabilities. Azerbaijan’s past use of Israeli drones against Armenian-backed forces has already demonstrated the effectiveness of this cooperation. Azerbaijan’s strategic location near Russia, Iran, and Central Asia makes it a crucial player in the U.S.-Israel-Gulf security matrix, especially as the Abraham Accords seek to create a new regional security architecture.

Azerbaijan, a major natural gas supplier to Europe, could coordinate with Israel and the UAE on energy security initiatives to reduce reliance on Russian energy. The Middle Corridor Initiative (connecting Central Asia to Turkey via Azerbaijan) can complement U.S.-backed IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Corridor), which President Trump is seeking to expand, as an alternative trade route bypassing Russia and Iran, and providing the US with additional leverage and new economic opportunities and deals. U.S., Israeli, and Gulf investments in Azerbaijani ports and logistics hubs could strengthen regional connectivity, advancing Trump’s vision for a more connected and integrated Middle East. Expanding free trade agreements between Abraham Accords countries and Azerbaijan would boost bilateral commerce and investment.

The U.S. and Israel lead in AI-driven defense systems, cybersecurity, and high-tech surveillance, which could benefit Azerbaijan’s domestic security and critical infrastructure protection. Joint research in satellite technology could expand Azerbaijan’s presence in space-based intelligence and communications. Israel’s water desalination and agricultural innovation could enhance Azerbaijan’s food security and climate resilience, a key concern in the Caspian region. Integrating Azerbaijan into Abraham Accords-linked economic and security initiatives expands the framework’s influence beyond the Middle East, contributing to an alternative Grand Bargain and a new vision for peace outside the current frameworks for settling conflicts. This would encourage Turkey, Central Asian states, and even Pakistan to consider engagement with the Accords, or at least to soften their current positions based in political and economic boycotts of Israel.  A strong Azerbaijan-Israel-U.S. partnership would counterbalance Moscow and Tehran’s efforts to disrupt regional connectivity projects, while giving the president greater flexibility in leverage in negotiating with both countries.

The outcome of Azerbaijan’s potential contribution as a catalyst and liaison with the Abraham Accords members and other target countries would result in a stronger regional security through intelligence sharing and defense coordination, economic diversification via energy trade and new infrastructure investments, technological advancements in cybersecurity, AI, and space research, and  a broader strategic network linking the Middle East, Caucasus, and Central Asia, reinforcing Western-aligned initiatives and countering adversarial powers. By leveraging Azerbaijan’s pivotal geography, Israel’s defense expertise, and U.S. economic and diplomatic muscle, this partnership could emerge as a key pillar of 21st-century regional security and trade frameworks, strengthening President Trump’s image as both a peacemaker and a dealmaker.

Irina Tsukerman is a U.S. national security lawyer, geopolitical analyst, President of Scarab Rising, Inc., a security and geopolitical risk strategic advisory, and Board Member of The Washington Outsider Center for Information Warfare.