Winning the Competition for Space Leadership

The United States is the world’s leader in the exploration and use of outer space. America became the preeminent spacefaring nation by winning the first space race with the Soviet Union. That contest was driven by the U.S.-Soviet geopolitical rivalry and run for the competitive advantages enabled by rocket and satellite technology. America’s prowess in space operations contributes to all elements (diplomatic, informational, military, and economic) of our national power. Space power is the total strength of a nation’s capabilities to conduct and influence activities to, in, through, and from space to achieve its objectives.

Near Earth space now reflects the complex and dangerous terrestrial security environment. Russia and China see space as a domain in which they can coerce America because of our dependence upon vulnerable space systems. They have conducted destructive tests of ASAT missiles which generated large amounts of orbital debris, endangered space flight safety, and harmed space environment sustainability. Both Russia and China have weaponized space by deploying and testing orbital weapons.

China has tested a fractional orbital bombardment weapon on a hypersonic glide vehicle. Russia has attacked U.S. space systems employed by Ukraine to defend itself against Moscow’s unlawful invasion. Moreover, it has developed and apparently is preparing to deploy a nuclear-armed ASAT weapon on-orbit in violation of the Outer Space Treaty.

China seeks to supplant the United States as the preeminent space power by its centennial anniversary in 2049, if not sooner. Beijing recognizes that space is the ultimate high ground and “the commanding height of strategic competition.” The Chinese Communist Party aspires to accumulate power to dominate the ongoing geopolitical and astropolitical contests. It is executing a military-civil fusion strategy, vastly expanding its space posture and operations, and integrating space capabilities into plans for “precision-strike” and “system destruction” warfare.

Furthermore, the astropolitical competition is spreading to cislunar space, the region between geosynchronous Earth orbit and the Moon’s surface. China continues to put infrastructure in place and conduct operations at Lagrange points, lunar transfer orbits, lunar orbits, and the Moon. It aims to use “strategic points, resources, and thoroughfares” in cislunar space to exert influence on or control over the Earth-Moon system. In particular, this includes the extraction of resources from the lunar surface estimated to be worth trillions of dollars to increase China’s international competitiveness, wealth, and power. In this regard, China plans to land taikonauts on the Moon by 2030 and operate an International Lunar Research Station with Russia by 2035.

Despite entering the new space race with a considerable head start, America is at risk of losing its leadership position.

Unfortunately, America has contributed to this situation through wavering political resolve, programmatic and fiscal instability, and risk averseness. Space assets are critical, however, to U.S. national, homeland, and economic security. They impact Americans’ daily lives in countless ways. collect, generate, and relay an extraordinary volume and variety of data and information as well as help to control physical assets in all sixteen U.S. critical infrastructure sectors. Satellite internet,

telecommunications, geospatial, and positioning, navigation, and timing services are now utilities. In today’s global economy, space-derived data and information are engines of prosperity. According to the Space Foundation, the global space economy was valued at $570 billion in 2023.

Moreover, space capabilities are the leading edge of U.S. information-age power. Space operations enable U.S. global power projection with speed, precision, and lethality. They reduce the risk to U.S. and allied forces as well as help to minimize collateral damage. The U.S. armed forces are structured and postured based on the assumption of the assured availability of

space services. They are heavily reliant and, in some cases, completely dependent upon space services to defend the nation and its interests abroad.

Disruption or loss of critical space mission capabilities would substantially increase the risk of strategic surprise, decrease combat effectiveness, increase the risks and costs of military operations, and complicate the ability to support defense commitments to allies and partners. Denial of mission-critical space capabilities could influence the course and outcome of conflict. Without the information provided by space assets, America could be reduced to a second or third tier industrial-age economic and military power or worse. The outcome of a conflict that begins in or extends to space could be the difference between victory, conquest, or even national survival.

The United States has the wherewithal to sustain its position as the world’s preeminent space power. It has the necessary human capital, scientific knowledge, financial resources, technological capability, and industrial capacity. In comparison to

its autocratic rivals, America also has the advantages of individual liberty, free enterprise, and allies with common values and interests. The United States must demonstrate sustained leadership and resolve to protect and advance its interests in space.

To win the ongoing geopolitical and astropolitical contests, America must restore clarity about its national purpose in space, reverse the erosion of its competitive advantages in the domain, and sustain its preeminence in space activities. Bold leadership and decisive action, utilizing all instruments of statecraft, are needed to protect and advance U.S. interests in space.

Consequently, the next President should:

Marc Berkowitz serves as a member of the NSSA Board of Advisors.

This report is a part of the “Presidential Transition Issue Paper Series”. For more information on this Series and other NSSA Moorman Center papers and activities, please visit us at www.nssaspace.org

The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of the Association or its member companies.

NSSA is the only U.S. trade association dedicated solely to promoting the health and vitality of the U.S. national security space enterprise (Title 10 and Title 50) and its supporting industry partners. For more information, including how to join the Association, please visit us at www.nssaspace.org.