Helping Ukraine Promotes European Solidarity and Security

In the last fortnight Paris, Washington, and Athens have shown signs of solidarity with Kyiv that strengthen Ukraine and of Western unity. France has announced a deal to sell Ukraine up to 100 Rafale F4 combat aircraft, next-generation SAMP/T air defense systems and a range of associated munitions and technologies by 2035.  While this does not mean much immediate relief for Ukraine against the doctrinally mandated Russian strategy to destroy Ukraine’s civil infrastructure and freeze it into submission; this does represent a powerful sign of solidarity on France’s part. It is selling Ukraine the precise capabilities it needs to ward off Russian attacks and enhance its own capabilities for long-range air strikes. Second, this deal opens the way to joint Franco-Ukrainian collaboration as it also provides for joint industrial projects in the drone and high-technology sectors.

But this is not the only such example of solidarity. The equally recent energy deals among Washington, Athens, and Kyiv are outstanding examples of how the West can simultaneously rebuff Russian power and facilitate the long-term integration of Ukraine into a still more integrated Europe. Washington has designated Greece, who has superb ports and refineries, as its gateway for the energy supply of the Balkans and Eastern Europe. By shipping large volumes of U.S. LNG to Greece for dissemination through the Balkans and eventually even through Balkan pipeline projects yet to be completed to Central Europe, the U.S. can undermine Russian energy power in the Balkans which is the foundation of Russian power in the Balkans. Thus, completion of projects like the projected Ionian-Adriatic Pipeline (IAP0 could bring this gas along with the existing gas coming from Azerbaijan in the Trans-Adriatic pipeline to the KrK Island refinery in Croatia from where it could go to Austria, Italy, and Germany, thereby minimizing or even replacing Russian gas shipments.

But beyond these horizons the Greco-American deal has now opened up another possibility. As noted above, Russia has been conducting a sustained campaign to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Undoubtedly with American support, Ukraine and Greece have now agreed to provide Ukraine through the impending winter with America by shipping it from Greek refineries to the Trans-Balkan pipeline and its interconnectors running from Ukraine to Greece.  While this deal provides Ukraine with enough gas to get through next winter; this arrangement possesses much greater significance.

First it, like the French deal above, shows European solidarity with Ukraine. Likewise, Azerbaijan, another gas exporter to Europe, has also signed a deal with Ukraine  and began pumping gas this summer through the trans-Balkan pipeline to Ukraine.  Second, it shows how the U.S., even with a reduced presence is instrumental to Ukrainian and European security in non-defense domains. Third, to the degree that Ukraine can recover from these attacks, we can see how it can contribute to Balkan and European security. If it is at peace Ukraine can become a net exporter of gas, oil, and electricity to the Balkans and beyond through this same infrastructure that is now being used to export gas to it. Even during periods of this war Ukraine has been able to export energy to Europe.

Fourth, both these deals underscore the necessity not only of supporting Ukraine but also of integrating it more fully with European security institutions. In the defense domain Europe is already searching for security guarantees for Ukraine.  It recognizes that the innovative defense industry and battle-tested Ukrainian military are essential to the defense of Europe. But in our opinion the only credible security guarantee that will deter Russia is NATO membership. Not only does that deter Russia, it ratifies Ukraine’s full integration with Europe. Similarly, in the energy sphere it is clear to everyone that dependence on Russian energy is a dangerous and corrosive factor regarding European security. The U.S.-Greek-Ukrainian energy deal depicted here shows both the immediate need for solidarity and the desirability if not the necessity of integrating Ukraine more fully with regional and sub-regional initiatives for Central and Eastern Europe like the Three Seas to strengthen the economies of these regions and resist Russian-inspired corruption and security.  The opportunity to move forward on these integration processes is one where the old football coach’s adage applies, “the future is now.”

Dr. Stephen J. Blank is a Senior Fellow at Foreign Policy Research Institute. He is an internationally renowned expert on Russian and Chinese defense policy. He is the author of "Light from the East: Russia's Quest for Great Power Status in Asia" (Taylor & Francis, 2023). He was a Professor of National Security Studies at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College.