The military campaign launched by the United States and Israel against Iran on February 28—and which remains ongoing—has yet to produce a strategic victory.

The Islamic Republic remains in power. The nuclear issue is unresolved, and Iran retains sufficient missile capabilities and regional proxies to destabilize the region and prolong the conflict. Washington has no clear strategy for ending this war on terms that could plausibly be described as a victory.

On October 7, 2023, Hamas carried out the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust, with some 1,200 people killed, most of them civilians brutally murdered, and 251 taken hostage. Israel held the attack plan more than a year in advance, and three months before the attack a veteran signals-intelligence analyst warned that Hamas was rehearsing it. Both were dismissed under the conception that Hamas was deterred, a failure the Israel Defense Forces' own investigations later confirmed. The response came in fragments, and it was heroic in them, from an all-female tank crew to reservists who drove south. Three years later, no state commission has been convened.