Are We Beyond the Event Horizon of War in the Pacific?

After more than a decade of apathy and false starts, the Navy will shrink to a nadir of 280 warships by 2027—the same time that Chinese leaders have made clear their military is to be ready to wage and win a war with America. It is increasingly clear that our Navy is inadequate to deter a Pacific war, cannot be sustained for such a war with existing ports and shipyards, and has an armory of munitions that is too thin. 

One way is to begin serial production of already proven large unmanned ships that have demonstrated capability to launch weapons like the SM-6 and have deployed to the Western Pacific, like the USV Ranger. 

There’s no time to lose. As the U.S. fleet dwindles, China’s is growing at an alarming rate and shows no signs of abating. China is outbuilding the U.S. Navy and is on track to add more than 20 new warships this year, compared to maybe five for the U.S. 

Moreover, China’s fleet is rehearsing joint fire campaigns and blockades of Taiwan at a tempo and complexity to ensure it can persevere over the U.S. and its allies. All told, by year’s end the Chinese Communist Party’s Navy is expected to number 400 warships. 

With 2027 as the target date, what is left that can be done? 

Building conventional warships—submarines, destroyers, and aircraft carriers—takes three or more years. Munitions like the highly effective SM-3 can take over a year to build. The best the nation can hope for, if production is accelerated, is a Navy of 293 warships in 2027. This is given the state of industry, while keeping every warship with life, and assuming there are no further delays of ships currently in production. 

This reality makes clear the priority left to our leaders: grow the industrial capacity to build and sustain a wartime military so that when China does decide to go to war, the nation can rapidly rise to the occasion. This is what the Naval Acts of the 1930s set in motion and is why a new Naval Act is so much needed today. 

Our submarine production rate languishes at less than 1.3 a year when it needs to be over 2.33 a year. Production of destroyers, frigates, and aircraft carriers, meanwhile, are increasingly behind schedule for delivery. All of this is unacceptable. This sad reality must be reversed now—but growing supply chains and expanding shipyards can take over two years before effects can be seen if made a national priority. 

The recent reconciliation budget and the current President’s budget indicates intent but is still missing the opportunity to begin a long-delayed revival of our maritime strength. This effort necessarily includes reviving our commercial maritime industry if we’re to be immune to Chinese economic coercion. 

What’s needed is a Big Beautiful Block Buy of naval vessels to kickstart a massive infrastructure investment in shipbuilding here in the U.S. There are no magic, cheap solutions waiting in allied shipyards to quickly produce warships for our Navy that our sailors and shipyards can maintain or operate. Of course, allies play a critical role in sustaining the peace and reviving our maritime industrial strength— as their most important security assurance, America’s industrial weakness today is also lability to them, given America is.

It’s impossible to build our way back into deterrence of China by 2027, and our allies can’t backstop the gap. Operating and resourcing our naval forces in unconventional ways is our only real option at this point.

Brent Sadler is a Senior Research Fellow for Naval Warfare and Advanced Technology at The Heritage Foundation’s Allison Center for National Security.