An America First Peace Plan in Ukraine

When Russian commentators watched the swift capture of Nicolás Maduro and his wife during Operation Absolute Resolve, their reaction was telling. “This is exactly how our ‘special military operation’ was meant to unfold: fast, dramatic and decisive,” one wrote. The envy was not accidental. It reflected a hard truth for Russia: decisive leadership and operational discipline still matter in global affairs, and the United States has not lost its edge. 

As a former Navy Seal and retired Admiral, I am certain the same clarity and strength is critical for guiding U.S. leadership in forging a peace plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. If anyone has the leverage and capability to secure a deal that brings a just and lasting peace – and prevents future wars – it is President Trump and his team. 

Ukraine is rightly reticent to give up any territory to an authoritarian war criminal in a conflict it did not choose – particularly territory that Russia has not yet captured on the battlefield. 

Neither side is going to get everything it wants. But giving way to Putin’s maximalist demands tells autocrats that U.S. security interests are easily negotiable and emboldens bad actors to use future conflicts to reshape Europe and the Middle East to their advantage. Ultimately, a peace plan that protects Ukraine sovereignty and security sends a clear message not only to Russia, but also China, Iran, and North Korea.

China already provides intelligence support to Moscow and helps Russia evade sanctions. Iran continues to provoke the United States through proxy attacks and drone shipments to Russia, and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has warned of a “heightened threat environment” linked to Tehran this year. Senior intelligence officials describe China as a “broad, unrelenting threat” to the United States. Seventy-six percent of Republican primary voters express concern that Russia, China, or Iran could strike the United States with drones.

The fact is Russia has violated every major historical security commitment it has made to Ukraine. It has also ignored deals with the United States, including the INF Treaty, and broken ceasefires in Syria and Georgia. In recent months, Putin sent drones buzzing into the airspace of five NATO countries, causing airport disruptions, and increasing the risk of wider war.

The peace plan must unambiguously convey to Putin that any continued aggression against Ukraine and our allies will trigger a forceful response. Any language that relies on broad phrases like “significant” or “deliberate” attack invites manipulation and circumvention.

Russia will trample on any agreement that is not backed by the strength of the United States and our allies. That is why the recent meeting of the Coalition of the Willing matters. Thirty-three nations have outlined a framework for real security guarantees, including continuous ceasefire monitoring led by the United States with international participation, European-led reassurance measures in the air, at sea, and on land, and a clear commitment to regenerate Ukraine’s armed forces. With U.S. intelligence, logistics, and support pledged in the event of renewed Russian aggression, this coalition sends an unmistakable message to Moscow that a ceasefire will be enforced, and future attacks will be met with a unified response.

And while consensus on security guarantees for Ukraine is – in Jared Kushner’s words – “a very very big milestone”, this “reassurance force” is only relevant after a ceasefire is struck – it is not a mechanism that forces Russia to the negotiating table. 

Recent U.S. intervention in Venezuela has already demonstrated how decisive American action can disrupt adversaries’ revenue streams by driving down global oil prices and directly undercutting Russia’s ability to finance its war. That pressure must continue and intensify. Cracking down on Russia’s shadow fleet and enforcing existing energy sanctions will further drain Moscow’s war chest and make clear that time and economics are not on their side.

Strong, clear deterrence measures and security guarantees prevent wars. The United States and President Trump have the opportunity to forge a lasting plan that protects U.S. security and economic interests and restores peace in Europe. It’s time to strike that deal.

Vice Admiral Robert Harward (U.S. Navy, ret.) is the former Deputy Commander, U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM)