Ending the Administration's Hopium Habit

In response to Vladimir Putin’s suspension of Russian participation in the New START nuclear arms control treaty and his promise to strengthen the Russian nuclear arsenal last week, the Biden administration’s Victoria Nuland, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, spoke to the media in order to encourage Russia to return to the Treaty. For many Russia hands, this weak response was dumbfounding. It was yet another illustration of what happens when a presidential administration develops a “hopium” habit.

President Barack Obama entered the White House with a hopium habit that ended up giving the Russians and Chinese almost a decade to modernize and expand their nuclear arsenals while the United States debated the utility of nuclear weapons. In keeping with his teetotaling ways, Donald Trump was alone among recent presidents in abstaining from the reality altering effects of hopium.

The Biden administration took office hell bent on pushing through a five-year extension of the New START Treaty, despite Russia’s material breach of the treaty at the time of extension. The administration hoped to avoid the arms race now facing the nation. After four decades in Washington, Joe Biden should know that hope is not a strategy. It is an act of surrender to kismet. With elected officials serving as dealers, hopium lulls voters into a false sense of security about the world around them. The real problem arises when politicians are addicts themselves.  

As part of its plan to restore China to pre-eminence, the Chinese Communist Party was more than willing to fuel the hopium habit of administration after administration, giving credence to the false narrative that China sought a peaceful rise. China is dramatically increasing its nuclear arsenal in preparation for coercing the United States into abandoning Taiwan. Back in 2021, Secretary of the Air Force, Frank Kendall, admitted that China will soon “have a de facto first-strike capability” as the People’s Liberation Army constructs almost 300 new ICBM silos. In as much as the Manchu Dynasty failed to effectively respond to losses in the first and second Opium Wars, the United States is also waiting too long to undertake needed nuclear and foreign policy reforms. 

Russia and Ukraine remain mired in a year-long bloody and destructive war that has seen some 300,000 casualties, 138 billion dollars in damage to Ukraine, and another 48 billion dollars in environmental damage. Moscow, correctly, believes it is in a de facto war with NATO. Beth van Schaack, US Ambassador-at-Large for Global Criminal Justice, in an effort to ensure Russia never comes to the negotiating table, recently said, “A global coalition of nations and international lawyers is working together to build a [war crimes] case against Russia which leads right to the top.” It is only through a hopium haze that such a public statement seems like sound foreign policy.

Meanwhile, Mallory Stewart, Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Arms Control, Verification, and Compliance, said that “President Joe Biden ‘has made it clear that no matter what else is happening in the world, the United States is ready to pursue critical arms control measures.” In other words, we plan to drag Vladimir Putin before the International Criminal Court while negotiating nuclear arms control treaties. These statements are reminiscent of a scene from the movie Dazed and Confused.   

America’s post-Cold War hopium addiction must end. The nation now stands at an inflection point where realism must trump idealism, or the nation will soon become a power only in the Western Hemisphere. It is time to follow Nancy Reagan’s advice and “just say no.”

Dr. Christine Leah is a Fellow at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies. She is the author of numerous articles on nuclear deterrence related topics.

Col. Curtis McGiffin (U.S. Air Force, Ret.) is Vice President for Education at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies and visiting professor at Missouri State University’s Department of Defense and Strategic Studies. Together, they have more than five decades of experience in uniform and DoD civil service.

Dr. Adam Lowther is Vice President for Research at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies and the host of ANWA DC’s Nuclecast.