Russo-Ukraine War

Russia-Ukraine War – 800 Years in the Making

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Russia’s current “Special Military Operation” against Ukraine is just part of an 800 year long struggle with the West. During those hundreds of years, Russia has experienced cycles of expansion and contraction, the most recent contraction being the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union in 1991. Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its assault on the Donbass in 2014, and its all-out attack on Ukraine in 2022, started the latest new cycle of Russian expansion to the West.

Geographic/Geopolitical Considerations

Russia has no significant geographic features to protect it from invasion from Europe, and since its very inception has been vulnerable to conquest. The traditional invasion route to Russia is from the North European plane, whose narrowest part is the 300 miles between the Baltic Sea and Carpathian Mountains, in Poland. This invasion route was taken by the Teutonic Knights (1242), the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (1610), Sweden (1700), France (1812), Germany (1914), Poland (1920), and Germany (1941). According to the Russians, NATO was/is a threat to the Soviet Union in the Cold War, and to Russia today, by that same route.

It has been a top priority for historic Russia to control these narrow Polish flatlands, which Imperial Russia (1795-1914) and the Soviet Union (1945-1991) were able to accomplish. With the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and the loss of its satellite Poland, Russia seeks a back-up buffer zone in Belarus and Ukraine.[1]

Russia’s Cycles of Expansion and Contraction

For hundreds of years, Russia’s geopolitical objective has been to expand from its core borders toward Central Europe. There have been five historic waves of Russian expansion, and Russia has begun its sixth wave. Several of these waves began from a line to where Russia had previously contracted, as a result being pushed back by Western forces. This historic starting line corresponds roughly with the 1991 border of the Russian Federation.

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In each of the waves, Russia’s lengthy expansion is followed by a contraction, as shown in the following table

Table 1: Russian Historical Expansion and Contraction

Contemporary Russians have commented that events from hundreds of years ago from Russia’s history are applicable today:

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov essentially justified Russia’s subordination to China in the current Russia-Western dispute over Ukraine when he cited Russia’s vassalage to a great Asian power, the Mongol Golden Horde, when Prince Alexander Nevsky was confronted by the Western Teutonic Knights in 1242. Referring specifically to that Russia’s submission to the East to confront the West from 800 years ago, Lavrov said “I am convinced that this wise and far-sighted policy is in our genes.”[2]
According to President Putin, “the descendants of Prince Alexander Nevsky – cast off the foreign yoke and began gathering the Russian lands.”[3] At the beginning of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia’s state-owned news agency RIA Novosti applauded Putin for “gathering the Russian world” and reestablishing Russia’s “historic borders” in Europe.[4]

War against Ukraine is part of an existential war against the West/NATO

Though many in the West see the Russian-Ukraine conflict as one between those two nations, Russians see themselves in a war with the West:[5]

President Putin casts the war in Ukraine as an existential battle with an aggressive and arrogant West.[6]
Former National Security Secretary Nikolai Patrushev stated that the Russian-Ukraine conflict “is a military confrontation between Russia and NATO, and above all the United States and Britain." [7]
Dmitri Trenin, former GRU Colonel and Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, said Russia’s objective in the conflict is “to replace the current European security order based on U.S. dominance and NATO’s central role with a new two-pillar architecture based on an agreement between Russia and the United States.” [8]

Russia believes that its future depends on the outcome in Ukraine

On February 22, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s security council and former Russian president and prime minister, said, “If Russia stops its special military operation without achieving victory, there will be no Russia, it will be torn apart.”[9]
Oleksiy Goncharenko, Ukrainian MP, European Solidarity party, stated that Ukraine holds the key to Putin’s dreams of restoring Russia’s great power status. Putin is painfully aware that without Ukraine, this will be impossible.[10]

How Far Does the Sixth Wave of Expansion Go?

This sixth wave is essentially the antithesis of the break-up of the Soviet Union, and the retreat of Russia to it borders from hundreds of years ago, what Putin called “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century”. Putin’s reaction to Russia’s retreat, which he blames on the West, can be best illustrated by his address to the State Duma on March 18, 2014, “If you compress the spring all the way to its limit, it will snap back hard. You must always remember this.” [11] Putin’s snap back of the sixth wave is yet another historic “gathering of the Russian world.” In a 30 November 2023, address to the World Russian People's Council, Putin declared that the Russian world includes Ancient Rus, the Tsardom of Muscovy, the Russian Empire, and the Soviet Union.[12] Putin’s desired expansion could thus extend to the historic borders of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union, that is, Moldova, and the Baltic States, and possibly, to the Soviets’ and Russians’ greatest historic expansion, Poland.

Conclusion

Historically, there has been and ebb and flow for Russia from its core border to as far west as Central Europe for hundreds of years, and the post-cold war period is the latest iteration. However, currently, Russia’s aspirations to fill its historic role as one of the great regional powers in Europe, and to have its own sphere of influence in its near-abroad, is inconsistent with Russia’s current capabilities. This struggle will continue and will shape NATO-Russian relations for years to come, until Russia-NATO armed conflict; until Russia’s capabilities and aspirations are aligned and a new equilibrium is established; or until Russia realizes its historic mission to achieve great power status will not be fulfilled, and it becomes a normal, though large, European country. In the meantime, the United States and NATO need to understand what motivates Russian security motivations in order to develop their own geopolitical strategy.

MAJ Dennis S. Nelson (U.S. Army, ret.)

Notes:

[1] Marshall, Tim, The Redrawing of the Iron Curtain, Telegraph, 13 August 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/08/13/new-iron-curtain-ukraine-putin-invasion/

[2] Lavrov, Sergei, Russia’s Foreign Policy in a Historic Perspective, Global Affairs, 30 March 2016, https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/russias-foreign-policy-in-a-historical-perspective/

[3] Putin, Vladimir, On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians, 2021

[4] Götz, Elias, Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Context, Causes, and Consequences, 28 May 2024, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10758216.2024.2343640

[5] Trenin, Dimitri, Mapping Russia’s New Approach to the Post-Soviet Space, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, 15 Feb 2022, https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2022/02/mapping-russias-new-approach-to-the-post-soviet-space?lang=en¢er=russia-eurasia

[6] Faulconbridge, Guy, Russia is Now Fighting NATO in Ukraine, Top Putin Ally Says, Reuters, 10 January 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-ally-patrushev-says-russia-is-now-fighting-nato-ukraine-2023-01-10/

[7] Faulconbridge, Guy, Russia is Now Fighting NATO in Ukraine, Top Putin Ally Says, Reuters, 10 January 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-ally-patrushev-says-russia-is-now-fighting-nato-ukraine-2023-01-10/

[8] Trenin, Dimitri, Mapping Russia’s New Approach to the Post-Soviet Space, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, 15 Feb 2022, https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2022/02/mapping-russias-new-approach-to-the-post-soviet-space?lang=en¢er=russia-eurasia

[9] Pifer, Steven, Russia, Ukraine and Existential War, All FSI News Commentary, 6 March 2023, https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/russia-ukraine-and-existential-war

[10] Dickinson, Peter, Putin’s New Ukraine Essay Reveals imperial Ambitions, Atlantic Council, UkraineAlert, 15 July 2021, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-new-ukraine-essay-reflects-imperial

[11] Gvosdev, Nicholas, Russia and US National Interests: Maintaining a Balance of Power in Europe and Asia, 5 August 2020, Russia Matters, https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/russias-impact-us-national-interests-maintaining-balan

[12] Putin, Vladimir, 'We Are Now Fighting Not Just For Russia's Freedom But For The Freedom Of The Whole World'

November 30, 2023, MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 10991, https://www.memri.org/reports/putin-we-are-now-fighting-not-just-russias-freedom-freedom-whole-world

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