The Invisible Munition Winning the War in Ukraine: Live Data

Open any major news site, and the war in Ukraine looks like a grim distortion of the mid-twentieth century. The imagery dominating our screens is instantly recognizable to any student of military history: muddy trenches slicing through the European steppe, grinding artillery duels reminiscent of the Somme, and painfully slow, bloody battles over industrial ruins. Across the NATO Alliance, analysts warn of critical shortages of 155mm shells, while politicians debate the timelines for transferring main battle tanks and fighter jets. This is a war that looks old, but it is not.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has delivered a definitive, unappealing verdict on the future of combat: the era of the platform-centric military is dead. For decades, Western defense procurement has worshipped at the altar of the exquisite platform and billion-dollar procurement programs. We have measured combat power by counting ships, airframes, and vehicles.

To understand how we got here, consider the staggering democratization of the sensor layer. For decades, the ability to pinpoint an enemy high-payoff target required billions of dollars in "exquisite" national technical means. This was the exclusive playground of superpowers, relying on highly classified spy satellites, specialized reconnaissance aircraft, and deep-cover espionage networks.

Today, the battlespace is utterly saturated by civilian data. From fiber-optic cables and cyberspace to low-Earth orbit, information flows into every corner of the front line, stripping away the traditional fog of war. The sky above Europe’s eastern flank is no longer a vacuum monitored exclusively by state actors; it is a hyper-crowded marketplace of commercial intelligence where the superpower monopoly on secrecy has permanently dissolved. In this new paradigm, building resilient data pipelines is just as critical to national survival as building munitions factories.

Photo provide by authors. Major General (retired) Matthew Van Wagenen providing presentation to Italian War College (February 2026)

Every time a Russian soldier posts a boastful video on TikTok, or a Ukrainian civilian logs onto Telegram to report a passing fuel convoy, a tactical sensor is born. When commercial satellite constellations sweep the globe every few hours, capturing high-resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery that cuts through dense cloud cover and European winter darkness, the traditional concept of military camouflage vanishes. Even the silent hum of global cellular networks—the invisible clusters of GSM pings from mobile phones huddled in a rural forest—now betray the location of hidden field headquarters.

The boundary between civilian information and military utility has effectively evaporated. In the modern theater of war, open-source data is just as operationally lethal as a multi-million-dollar intelligence satellite. The implications for NATO's forward-deployed forces in the Baltics or Poland are stark: it is difficult to hide, and you cannot assume operational security just because your camouflage nets are up.

But flooding a command center with data is useless if you drown in it. In fact, raw data can be a pathology, paralyzing commanders with information overload. The true, decisive innovation achieved by Ukraine is not the mere collection of information, but the ability to ingest, fuse, and act on this firehose of unstructured information at machine speed.

They have turned a potential vulnerability into a stark decision advantage, transforming a chaotic deluge of digital noise into an asymmetric weapon. Elon Musk, among other luminaries, have warned that AI poses an even greater risk than nuclear weapons.

Through a brilliant patchwork of homegrown software like Delta—a cloud-based operating system that functions like a hyper-secure "Google Maps for the frontline"—and AI-driven targeting algorithms, the Ukrainians have fundamentally collapsed the traditional "kill chain." In standard Western military doctrine, finding and striking a target is a linear, bureaucratic process: a target is spotted, passed up a rigid, multi-layered chain of command for verification, cross-checked against rules of engagement, and eventually assigned to a weapon system. In a typical staff structure, this process routinely takes hours, sometimes days. It also takes a large workforce.

Modern data fusion software condenses this bureaucratic timeline into a matter of seconds. By automating target validation and sensor-to-shooter pairing, Ukraine has transformed the rigid, linear kill chain into a continuous, hyper-velocity kill web. This algorithmic speed dramatically reduces the footprint of bloated headquarters staff, shifting the human component away from tedious manual data entry and elevating leadership to what they do best: providing high-level ethical oversight and strategic direction.

Algorithms ingest a messy mix of social media scraps, commercial satellite anomalies, and drone feeds, instantly confirm the target, and push the coordinates directly to the closest available “shooter.” That shooter might be a mobile artillery battery, an offensive cyber unit, or a soldier crouched in a trench with an inexpensive first-person view (FPV) drone.

This has created a flat, distributed, and self-healing "kill chain." This rhizomatic architecture mirrors the resilience of the internet itself. If one command node is blown up, the data simply reroutes through another. There is no central head to chop off, making the entire ecosystem remarkably survivable against a mathematically superior enemy.

Photo from infodas Data Centric Security Conference, Colonel Arnel P. David (left) and Lt Col Ash Lubeck (right) present as NATO’s new Digital Lethality Branch, explaining the NATO Maven Smart System.

This reality carries profound, uncomfortable implications for the NATO Alliance. For the past thirty years, Western militaries have built their entire defense strategy around a small number of incredibly expensive, heavily armored, and highly centralized platforms. We rely on rigid, top-down command structures designed for a slower world, operating under the assumption that we will enjoy uncontested electronic and informational superiority.

Against an adversary using a decentralized, machine-speed data ecosystem, these legacy architectures are not just inefficient; they are acute liabilities. A multi-billion-euro aircraft carrier or a heavily armored division headquarters becomes a massive, glowing target if its digital signature can be mapped in real-time by commercial sensors and struck within minutes.

NATO is currently trying a massive digital overhaul under the banner of the Maven Smart System, striving to bring algorithmic warfare and data fusion to the entire Allied Command Operations. We, the authors, were fortunate to be a part of this effort. But this cannot be treated as a routine IT upgrade, a software refresh, or a slow-rolled procurement project lacking urgency. Building a resilient, cloud-agnostic digital backbone capable of securely digesting unclassified civil and commercial data at the tactical edge is a strategic emergency.

Consider the economics of modern defense. For what costs less than one military helicopter, such as a UH-60 Black Hawk or an Airbus H225M Caracal, a nation can acquire the central nervous system to organize its data and leverage AI for orchestrating multidomain warfighting. The return on investment is astronomical. Without a capability like the NATO Maven Smart System, any nation showing up to the next battlefield will be at an extreme disadvantage by orders of magnitude, fighting blind against an adversary that sees and acts faster.

The lessons from the blood-soaked fields of Eastern Europe are unmistakable: milliseconds now dictate survival. The OODA loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) has been accelerated to near-instantaneous speeds. Steel and gunpowder still matter, wars must still be settled in the physical world, but they are increasingly subordinate to the digital architecture that steers them. The future of free societies and the defense of the Euro-Atlantic area depend entirely on our ability to adapt our institutions, our procurement, and our doctrine to this new baseline of conflict.

In the wars of tomorrow, the side that wins the data fight wins the war. Everything else is just noise.

Matthew Van Wagenen is a retired major general in the U.S. Army, previously served as the Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations (DCOS OPS) in the NATO Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE). Arnel P. David is a colonel in the U.S. Army currently serving as the director of the Digital Lethality Branch in the NATO Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE). The views and opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not reflect any entity or organization of the US Government or NATO.