Will the Ukrainians Fight?

Russia’s inartfully veiled invasion of Ukraine is underway. Within days or hours—perhaps by the time this article is published—well over 100,000 Russian troops may be smashing their way through Ukraine’s heartland. Much hangs in the balance. One of Europe’s newest democracies may be destroyed. Thousands of Ukrainian civilians may be killed, and perhaps hundreds of thousands forced to flee their homes. If their military operation is successful, Russian leaders may decide they want to take more of Europe by force; President Putin has already laid that groundwork. Only one thing stands in the way of this outcome: Ukrainian will to fight.

So, will the Ukrainians fight? This is an open question. Interviews with Ukrainians don’t really provide an answer. Troops on the front lines worn down by years of dreary, dangerous trench duty have expressed mixed sentiments. But boredom and malaise—signs in-the-moment sentiment, not necessarily low will to fight—might transform into iron will at the sight of the first Russian armored vehicle moving towards their lines. Some civilians in Kharkiv, a city close to the Russian border, have stated that they are ready to fight. Others have expressed more interest in partygoing and Instagram. Even these Ukrainians might surprise us: self-proclaimed tough guys might run, and the club kids might turn out to be Ukrainian Che Guevaras.

Forecasting will to fight takes time and effort. It is too late for thoughtful forecasting. Only an all-out invasion will reveal Ukrainian will to fight. How can Western countries help the Ukrainians slow and then reverse the Russian invasion? Providing anti-tank and surface-to-air missiles will help slow the Russian advance and give the Ukrainians a boost in confidence. But these weapons will only make a difference if Ukrainian troops choose to stay in the fight to use them. Sanctions against Russia probably will not matter to Ukrainians fighting off Russian armored assaults. Helping now requires forecasting and then boosting Ukrainian will to fight during the occupation.

Here's one approach to forecasting will to fight that can be used to help prepare for the occupation. Other methods exist and should be applied to help triangulate the best ways to help the Ukrainians help themselves. Ukraine will lose this war, but with sufficient, enduring will to fight, it can win the peace by sending the Russians back across their border poorer for the adventure.

Dr. Ben Connable is a senior nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, the Director of Research at DT Institute, and adjunct professor of security studies at Georgetown University.