Cislunar Space Competition With China

Like previous rivalries between nation-states throughout history, the U.S. and PRC are competing for political prestige, international influence, scientific knowledge, technological advancement, economic prosperity, and military power. The PRC sees itself in a new space race with America that it intends to win. The Sino-American rivalry to influence or control the physical and human geography of the world now extends from Earth to cislunar space – the line between the Earth and the Moon or the Moon’s orbit – and is a direct outgrowth of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) aim to reestablish China as the world’s dominant power. China considers space a “critical domain in international strategic competition.”

The stratagems the CCP employs with respect to its space ambitions are consistent with how it pursues terrestrial objectives. Besides blandishment, inducement, and deception, the CCP uses coercion to erode established norms, undermine the rules-based international order, seize territory, and change international boundaries. China’s efforts to exert influence or control over cislunar space will employ similar means and methods. This includes asserting claims of sovereignty, waging political, economic, and legal warfare, conducting grey zone operations, and developing advanced military and intelligence capabilities to coerce the U.S. and other nations to accede to the PRC’s claims.

While some may discount China’s cislunar space aspirations because the United States has already gone to the Moon, they are at risk of underestimating the impact. If the world perceives that the PRC is winning the competition with the United States over cislunar space, it would be a historic CCP accomplishment that diminishes America’s political and economic prestige, international standing, and global influence.

The PRC likely will set precedents through cislunar space operations to establish a new, advantageous basis for customary international law. Indeed, China will likely employ political and legal warfare (“lawfare”) tactics to justify multiple vectors of coercion, including the threat or use of armed force, to establish autocratic norms of behavior, undercut and change existing rules, claim territory, and in effect create its desired boundaries on Earth and in cislunar space. The CCP’s pursuit of a dominant position in cislunar space would strengthen the economic element of its national power and weaken the United States and its allies. The PRC may establish an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in cislunar space, declare a Space Defense Identification Zone (SDIZ) and “keep out” zones to protect it, conduct in-situ resource utilization to support operations on the lunar surface, and extract valuable resources such as rare Earth materials and water on the Moon to increase its international competitiveness, wealth, and military power. Indeed, the CCP could move to monopolize the market for rare minerals on the Moon as well as the use of lunar water as an energy source. If PLA forces were in a commanding position atop the Earth- Moon system’s gravity wells, this could enhance their ability to deny the U.S. freedom of action to use space systems as a force multiplier to enhance the combat effectiveness of its operational forces in other domains.

The U.S. Government has yet to identify cislunar space as a vital national interest, take the steps necessary to protect and promote America’s interests in cislunar space, and counter China’s strategy for dominating cislunar space. Hence, urgent action is needed to ensure the U.S. can compete effectively in the cislunar competition and secure the ultimate high ground.

To advance U.S. political, economic, technological and security interests in cislunar space, the next President should:

U.S. space domain awareness in cislunar space and to facilitate U.S. commercial sector leadership in space launch, exploration, and mining operations.**

The outcome of the U.S.-China competition in cislunar space will have profound implications for U.S. political, economic, technological, and security interests. A bold vision together with sustained leadership is needed to protect and advance U.S. national interests in this increasingly important region of space.

James Frelk serves as Vice Chair of the Moorman Center for Space Studies, the independent think tank within the National Security Space Association. Chris Williams serves as Chair of the Moorman Center.

This report is a part of the “Presidential Transition Issue Paper Series”. For more information on this Series and other NSSA Moorman Center activities, please visit us at www.nssaspace.org.

* This paper draws upon Marc Berkowitz and Chris Williams, “Strategic Implications of China’s Cislunar Space Activities”, https://nssaspace.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Strategic-Implications-of-Chinas-Cislunar-Space-Activities-8.21-final. pdf

** See “Strategic Implications of China’s Cislunar Space Activities”

https://nssaspace.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Strategic-Implications-of-Chinas-Cislunar-Space-Activities-8.21-final. pdf

This report is a part of the “Presidential Transition Issue Paper Series”. For more information on this Series and other NSSA Moorman Center activities, please visit us at www.nssaspace.org.