Reality is coming home to roost for many in southeast Asia regarding the implications of China’s emboldened claims in the South China Sea, which would place all of the seabed resources and fish stocks within its Ten-Dash-Line. Acquiescence to this would cost Malaysia dearly. Fortunately, it’s awakening to the fact that a new approach is needed.

At the 9th South China Sea Conference hosted by Maritime Institute of Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur, the desire for quiet resolution of disputes played out against reality. That reality is China’s insistence and that its neighbors acquiesce to its claims. For the past few years, the Philippines has been at the forefront of a more vigorous pushback on those claims – even lethally like last year’s fratricide of several Chinese Coast Guard sailors killed in a collision with their own Navy destroyer while harassing Philippine vessels.

The Indo-Pacific is saturated with strategic acronyms. AUKUS, announced in September 2021, is reshaping Australia’s long-term defense capabilities. The QUAD, particularly since its revival in 2017, serves as a forum for regional cooperation among four partners. The ANZUS Treaty, signed in 1951, remains the foundation of Australia’s alliance with the United States (U.S.). These are only a few examples of the many overlapping security arrangements shaping the region, from ASEAN-led forums such as the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus) and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) to longstanding defense arrangements such as the Five Power Defense Arrangements (FPDA).

Among the region’s many developments is the emergence of a lesser-known Indo-Pacific minilateral grouping comprising Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and the U.S., informally known as the SQUAD. The defense ministers of Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and the U.S. first met during the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in June 2023. In May 2024, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin held talks in Hawaii with his counterparts from Australia, Japan, and the Philippines, further advancing their defense cooperation. By June 2024, the SQUAD label was appearing in policy commentary.

The separation of Europe and the Indo-Pacific into distinct strategic theatres is becoming less clear-cut. Russia’s war against Ukraine is drawing Asian actors more directly into European security, while developments in Europe increasingly feed back into Asia. A current dispute between South Korea and Ukraine shows how far these connections now reach.

Seoul is demanding an apology from Kyiv over the public disclosure of the planned transfer to South Korea of two North Korean soldiers captured while fighting for Russia. The men had expressed a wish to resettle in the South, but Seoul intended the transfer to remain confidential, and President Lee Jae Myung has warned that further measures could follow.