Keep the Strait Open, Cut Off the IRGC’s Oil Money

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump said the U.S. military on Friday carried out new limited strikes on Iran, targeting an Iranian air defense system.

Iranian state media reported the sound of two explosions in the Suza area of Qeshm Island, which is in the crucial waterway for oil shipments.

The Trump Administration has settled into an economic strategy of containment and isolation against the Islamic Republic of Iran by utilizing a robust marine blockade combined with a comprehensive sanctions regime. Yet, with the completion of midterm elections, there is increased talk about renewed kinetic activity to produce American strategic successes that have been elusive thus far.

When the United States entered into a cease fire now seven long months ago it yielded the initiative. Twenty thousand successfully struck targets did much damage to Iran’s military capability, but without causing the Regime to capitulate or crumble. Bad faith negotiations by Iran, and limited and proportionate responses by the United States to Iranian provocation, have given the Regime a sense that America is unwilling to finish the job. Episodic U.S. threats that never materialized have given the Regime the security that this time will be no different.

Now that the 2026 midterm ballots have been cast, national security pundits are locked in a debate over whether America’s foreign policy will shift depending on which party controls Congress. In reality, this is a red herring. Foreign policy and naval enforcement remain squarely under executive authority, meaning President Donald Trump will continue to dictate terms over the next two years regardless of Capitol Hill balances. The real question is not who wins the midterms, but how the administration can optimize its baseline posture—Trump’s ultimatum that Iran must “make a deal, rot economically or be wiped out"—to make it maximally efficient. To compel a fair, durable settlement without open-ended military entanglements, Washington must execute a high-leverage, low-cost strategy that systematically seals Tehran’s remaining economic escape hatches while conserving U.S. resources. Moreover, because successful diplomacy requires two willing parties, this strategy must force Tehran to realize that returning to the negotiating table to secure a fair agreement is far preferable to watching its economy collapse and being forced to negotiate later from a vastly eroded bargaining position.