For years, Washington’s strategic debate on China has swung between two contrasting fears: an unstoppable colossus destined to rewrite the global order, and the hope that its economic headwinds will simply stall its momentum. But as analysts begin to introduce the possibility of a sudden and severe structural fracture within Beijing, this binary view misses a far more dangerous reality. Western policymakers are not facing a single trajectory. Instead, they must prepare for a dual threat, the danger of a sudden, desperate collapse on one end, and the consolidation of an illiberal hegemony on the other.

When looking at the world, Western democracies tend to project the stability and equilibrium of their own liberal systems onto others, assuming that foreign powers operate under similar rules. We often forget that China is an autocracy, and autocracies are unstable by definition and prone to sudden surprises. Western leaders know this history very well, yet they repeatedly choose to forget it. China’s system is not a model for anyone.

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