Against a backdrop of Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and uncertainty in its relationship with Washington, Europe is undergoing its most aggressive defense spending expansion since the Cold War.

Following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, combined defense spending by EU member states rose from €240 billion ($253 billion) in 2022 to €418 billion ($473 billion) in 2025.

In March 1942, Finnish soldiers launched an offensive to retake the island Gogland from the Soviets, not with boats, but by advancing across the frozen Gulf of Finland. The narrow waterway that in warmer months protected the island had become an avenue for assault. Soldiers swathed in winter camouflage clandestinely crossed the snow covered ice and took control of the island, constraining the sea route to Leningrad. In the modern day, the gulf’s scattered islands still remain part of a strategically sensitive maritime frontier. These often overlooked map dots exist on the very frontlines of geopolitics yet are virtually unknown to a wider world. Here, where Russia and NATO’s edges grind against one another, what happens on a few specks of land surrounded by sea can affect events around the globe.

The Gulf of Finland is a narrow passage bordered primarily by Finland to the north and Estonia to the south, both of whose capital cities are positioned directly on its shores. While its western edge opens into the wider Baltic Sea, the gulf’s eastern flank terminates in Russian territory around St. Petersburg. Far from a sleepy backwater, it is choked with shipping routes, ports, communications cables, and naval approaches which give this geography outsized importance beyond its modest size. Whoever controls the small islands speckled across this strategic space gains observation points, logistical nodes, or opportunities to extend operational reach.