Beijing's Own Goal in the Pacific

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been on a hot streak of Pacific diplomacy. Over the past week, Australia has inked three pacts – the Nakamal Agreement with Vanuatu, the Ocean of Peace Alliance and the Vuvale Union, both with Fiji – which are reshaping the region’s security architecture. These positive developments have been overshadowed by a Chinese submarine test-firing a missile carrying a dummy warhead into Pacific waters, which analysts say is a direct warning to Pacific countries  and a reminder of the PLA's reach and presence.

Chinese officials say the launch was planned well in advance, yet many are left wondering why it wasn’t delayed or brought forward to avoid the signing in Fiji. Leaders across the region have confirmed they were given minimal notice of the test. Whatever the truth of the timeline, the optics aren’t good for Beijing, which presents as lacking self-control. A Global Times editorial has responded by calling the test “necessary and restrained”, and warning critics they'd “have to accept and get used to” China flexing this kind of reach.

Since Solomon Islands signed a security pact with China in 2022, Canberra has changed how it deals with the region. Clever statecraft has produced a run of transactional agreements, with Pacific nations trading access to their waters and infrastructure for concrete gains: climate migration pathways for Tuvalu, economic transformation for Vanuatu, policing and transnational crime capacity for Fiji, and budget support and banking security for Nauru. In each case, Australia has pushed for the same concession: a consultation clause giving Canberra a say whenever a partner considers letting a third party, namely China, into sensitive areas of cooperation.

A missile test makes Pacific countries spectators in their own region, much like they were during the Second World War. Albanese’s opening is to offer something different – partnerships that give Pacific countries legitimacy and agency over their own security, not another arrangement decided over their heads.

Domestically, this can be a win for Albanese. The recent Lowy Institute Poll shows Australians don't feel safe in the world, and the missile test amplifies that anxiety. The test also makes the case for deeper engagement with Pacific Island countries, despite domestic critics like Pauline Hanson attacking the aid spending that underwrites it.

Today, Albanese is in Honiara for the Solomons’ 48th Independence Day, in the town that sent the last shockwaves through Canberra in 2022 when it signed a security agreement with Beijing. The tone is different this time, with Prime Minister Matthew Wale declaring that China’s missile test was “not something a friend does”.

Tomorrow, Albanese will host Prime Minister Marape of PNG and Prime Minister Lord Fakafanua of Tonga, the same day the Pukpuk Treaty with PNG comes into force. It presents as an opportunity for Albanese to sell the idea of the Ocean of Peace Alliance and the potential for the regional security treaty that Prime Minister Wale has been championing.

Pacific leaders have said for years that they don't want their region to be a theatre for someone else’s power contest. They want responsibility for their own security, not protection from it. China just gave them, and Albanese, the clearest possible proof of what they worry about.

Oliver (Oli) Nobetau is Acting Pacific Islands Program Director and the Project Director of the Australia–Papua New Guinea Network at the Lowy Institute.

image: Chinese military vehicles carrying JL-3 submarine-launched missiles on armoured vehicles take part in a military parade to commemorate the 80th anniversary of Japan's World War II surrender held in front of Tiananmen Gate in Beijing, Wednesday, Sept. 3, 2025. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

This article appeared originally at Lowy Institute's the interpreter.