Ukraine: What Are Putin's Options Now?

Deluded by a belief he would win quickly and cleanly,
Putin must now weigh the pros and cons for his next steps.

After failing to take Kyiv with a lightning raid that would have forced Ukraine to sue for peace, his army is getting bogged down. And while he retains the upper hand in terms of qualitative military superiority, he faces the prospect of a long insurgency against a Ukrainian population and military that have proven more than keen to fight.

Rather than splintering NATO and the European Union Putin has given both organisations a new sense of focus that can comes with recognition of a clear existential danger rather than just an irritant to be managed. With Finland and Sweden actively considering joining Western alliance structures, Putin may even have inadvertently succeeded in bringing about further NATO enlargement. Deluded by a belief he would win quickly and cleanly against an enemy with no stomach for a fight, and with minimal consequences from a fragmented West, he has also clearly not considered what he would do if things went wrong. That’s one of the most basic errors of strategic planning.

Massively ramp up violence in Ukraine, reverting to the guiding principle of Russian offensive military doctrine: trap enemy forces; treat cities as hostages; and use indiscriminate bombardment to pulverise resistance.

• Pros: Wins the conflict swiftly, gets the charismatic Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky out of the picture, and achieves Putin’s nationalistic vision of a unified “Russian” people.
• Cons: Will result in massive civilian loss of life. Guarantees a spirited Ukrainian insurgency. Boosts international outrage that would turn Russia into a pariah. Will send its economy beyond the nadir of the mid-1990s. Raises the real prospect of a threat to Putin’s power from within.

Look for a face-saving way out by suing for peace, and then declaring a great victory.

• Pros: Temporarily gets Putin out of a mess that he alone created. Might come with some sweeteners: for example an enlarged and independent Donetsk and Luhansk; a semi-neutral Ukraine; relaxation of the toughest sanctions.
• Cons: Will badly damage Putin domestically and internationally. Nobody at home will buy a “victory” narrative from such an outcome after the scope of his invasion. And Western leaders will know that he is vulnerable to united push-back.

Escalate not only against Ukraine, but NATO as well. Conduct a demonstration of power and resolve – such as detonating a nuclear weapon in the North Sea, or arranging a “provocation” against NATO forces. Ramp up the Ukraine invasion effort with massive violence.

• Pros: Shows determination and represents the ultimate test of the West’s willingness to match Putin’s escalatory moves.
• Cons: Would likely result in a Russia-NATO war which he is unprepared to fight and would probably lose. The only viable next escalatory step would be WMDs. His inner circle may eventually decide that enough was enough.