Executive Summary:

Joshua Howard, Strengthening Deterrence Against Russia’s Conventional Attack of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, No. 673, November 3, 2026

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Biological weapons are back in Russia. Congress must pay attention, correct America’s biological preparedness shortcomings, and act to stave off this threat to the nation.

This week’s plague outbreak, a disease that killed millions in centuries past, is not merely a historical curiosity nor a naturally occurring phenomena. Russia’s outbreak, originating at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute of Siberia, stems almost entirely from their research into offensive biological weapons. This same Russian facility today also works to research and weaponize anthrax, brucellosis, cholera, and other deadly agents that pose material threats to the United States.

This report examines how Russia has used Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania as testing grounds for information warfare over the last two decades.  During that time, the methods associated with Moscow’s grand strategy have shifted from limited and ineffective soft balancing to a more coercive political warfare that blends identity politics, historical revisionism, and state-backed networks to counterbalance Russia’s western adversaries. The report argues that these efforts are not merely supplementary to Russian strategy but are at the heart of Moscow’s attempt to erode NATO cohesion and chip away at Western influence along its borders.