NATO Reaches an Inflection Point

With fears rising that Hamas’s unexpected attacks on Israel could spark a far-broader conflict in the Middle East, stepped-up NATO patrols in the Baltic Sea following suspicious damage to undersea infrastructure and both Kyiv and Moscow digging in for a long winter at war—the latter bolstered by freshly delivered North Korean weaponry—it’s clear that NATO is facing one of the most volatile global security landscapes in its nearly-75-year history. Under the circumstances, last month’s NATO defense ministers' Brussels gathering took on exceptionally high significance; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky even made a surprise appearance, marking his first visit to NATO headquarters since the Russian invasion.

To continue meeting these challenges, however, NATO can’t afford any distractions or weaknesses within its own ranks—of which there are several. The first glaring example is Turkey’s constant bargaining and bickering over Sweden’s potential accession to NATO. While Erdogan has finally submitted a bill approving Stockholm’s membership, Ankara has yet to set out a timeframe for ratification, raising concerns that we might see a repeat performance of what happened earlier this year when Turkey seemed to walk back its approval, possibly in an attempt to win more concessions—a duplicitous and destabilizing approach which risks sowing internal discord at the very time that NATO needs to remain aligned.

Erdogan’s machinations aside, there are additional grave internal problems plaguing the military alliance—particularly the question of endemic corruption in its Eastern European member states. If NATO’s eastern edges continue to become hotbeds of instability and racketeering, how are they supposed to help ensure political and military stability in response to Russia’s encroaching ambitions?

As British MP Harriet Baldwin noted, Moscow uses corruption as a “tool of statecraft” to weaken states it wants to influence. “The Kremlin,” Baldwin observed, “deploys its control over important oil and gas industries and corrupt practices to create political and economic dependencies, while sowing distrust, confusion and weakness. Putin’s Kremlin has used this tool not only in countries like Ukraine, but also throughout much of the Western Balkans and in Western countries.”

As U.S. Congressman Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) warned last year in a letter to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, this has infiltrated the heart of Europe. “Most of the malign Russian influence”, Davidson noted, “is centered in southeastern Europe, including amongst NATO countries such as Bulgaria.”

Davidson was the canary in the coal mine about Bulgaria, where the situation has gotten steadily worse since his warning to Secretary Yellen. In fact, just weeks ago, Bulgarian police scuffled with ultra-nationalist, anti-NATO protesters in Sofia.

As Congressman Davidson cautioned, a core part of what makes Bulgaria a serious threat to NATO’s stability is the country’s consistently corrupt judiciary. The situation reached a fever pitch under former chief prosecutor Ivan Geshev, who apparently spent much of his tenure turning the powerful prosecutor’s office into a tool to protect the interests of his political allies.

Geshev ruled with an iron fist, with the US Embassy having to warn investigative journalists of imminent threats after they reported corruption allegations against him. Private companies weren’t spared, either; in one egregious example of prosecutorial overreach, he went after a FinTech firm called Nexo, whose employees had donated to opposition party Democratic Bulgaria; the Nexo raids came right as Democratic Bulgaria was expected to receive a mandate to form a pro-Western government.

Meanwhile, Geshev explicitly failed to investigate evidence of genuine corruption or implement international sanctions against Russia, serving as a prime example of the kind of post-Soviet swamp creature which still thrives in the high echelons of some eastern European states, emboldening Putin’s Kremlin. Geshev is finally out, dismissed following remarks that politicians who opposed him should be thrown away like trash, but it’s far from clear that the situation will improve under his controversial successor Borislav Sarafov.

Congressman Davidson is right—the systemic problems in Bulgaria are a serious threat to NATO, and a windfall for Putin. Indeed, Bulgaria is a worrying example of what happens when a state becomes unstable, untrustworthy and corrupt: the gate swings wide open for Moscow to step in. Despite efforts within Bulgaria to deepen integration with NATO and shed the legacy of its Soviet past, strong pockets of support for Russia remain among both the population and governing class. Even Bulgaria’s own Deputy Foreign Minister recently cautioned that the country’s rule of law problems make it “an unstable and unreliable partner of the EU and NATO.”

The instability seems to be spreading and becoming endemic in the region. In the leadup to Poland’s closely-fought  recent elections, the incumbent Law and Justice party attempted to distract from a snowballing visa fraud scandal by publishing parts of a top secret defense plan—a huge boon to Moscow and a deep blow to NATO’s military readiness along its eastern border. In Slovakia, meanwhile, which according to pundits the Kremlin has identified as a weak link within NATO, populist, anti-American PM Robert Fico returned to office—and immediately suspended military aid to Ukraine. Fico, who narrowly avoided going to jail last year on corruption charges, has hinted that he may also block further sanctions against Moscow.

NATO can no longer tolerate democratic backsliding and wanton disregard for the rule of law in its member nations. The alliance can’t afford instability at such a crucial moment, as NATO both doubles down on support for Ukraine and prepares for major actions including its largest military exercise since the Cold War coming up early next year, which will involve 41,000 troops and fifty ships from all member states. At this pivotal crossroads, NATO needs to finally make addressing these internal threats an urgent priority.

Paul R. Brian is a freelance journalist focused on geopolitics, religion, and history. His website is www.paulrbrian.com