The Art of the Iran Deal

President Trump has in recent months repeatedly emphasized two points regarding Iran: first, that he would not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon and, second, that he would prefer to achieve this through a deal rather than “bombing the hell out of it.” Earlier this month he sent the Supreme Leader a letter inviting him to direct negotiations.

But these constraints provide opportunities for the president, especially when viewed in the context of Iran’s position in the region. Simply put: Today, a good deal can be achieved because Iran is at its weakest while the United States is at its boldest and strongest.

This sets the table for a four-element art of the Iran nuclear deal: a credible military deterrent, transregional cooperation, financial tools, and thorough monitoring. Let’s look at each in turn:

A decade before President Obama negotiated his disastrous deal, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger was asked about the military option if negotiations with Iran fail, to which he replied: “I’m not recommending military action, but I’m recommending not excluding it.”

All of this must be on the negotiation table—not just Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear weapon, but also the reality Tehran wants to topple the U.S.-aligned world order.

Not only must military options be included; they must be developed and rehearsed with a broad coalition. Israel will have the option of taking out Iran’s nuclear facilities, but those actions will be part of a coalition effort comprised of our European and Arab partners to address the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) activities around the world.

President Trump has already taken the right transregional approach to addressing conflicts, hosting talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia and pushing China out of the Panama Canal. Additionally, a transregional military element—building on the defensive coordination among European and Arab partners with Israel over the last two years in the region—must be aligned with diplomatic and economic efforts to approach Iran in the same unified manner.

In some respects, Europe has adopted this perspective as well. Over the last several years, our European allies benefitted from Israeli military technology to defend against a potential spillover of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And yet? Many of our closest European allies—including those in the new eastern center of gravity—have a long way to go in understanding the scale of the Iranian threat, even as it is a key driver of war on their continent. European allies that championed Obama’s Iran nuclear deal held talks with Tehran earlier this year where one of the items of discussion was the lifting of sanctions, even as Iran was reported to be building missiles capable of reaching European capitals.

On February 4, President Trump reintroduced an expanded version of the maximum pressure campaign, tying a noose around the regime’s economic lifelines. It also calls for secondary sanctions, punishing those nations (particularly China) that help Iran evade sanctions. This is an important start.

Europe must now get on board. Iran maintains access to European banks and its officials move freely throughout Europe. It was recently reported that one Hamburg-based bank, Varengold, has been “at the center of a clandestine financial network” Iran has used to funnel funds to proxies across the Middle East. Moreover, the EU has not yet designated the IRGC a foreign terrorist organization, as the United States has.

The Europeans—at the very least those most aligned with the U.S. —must be part of our efforts to monitor, financially pressure and negotiate with Iran. The fact that the UN sanctions soon expire may have the silver lining that we need not work through the decrepit UN system, where our adversaries can veto our efforts.

Now begins the hard work of building a credible military architecture between our European and Middle Eastern partners to collectively preempt Iran’s military threats (including steps toward avoiding nuclear breakout), continuing to expand the maximum pressure campaign across our global partners.

At the same time, the United States must build a verification infrastructure with these partners, ensuring Iran is fully transparent and no element of its nuclear or other military ambitions is unknown to the U.S. and its partners.

The art of the Iran nuclear deal is possible and is off to a good start. Now, success depends on our partners and the efforts we build and pursue together.

Jacob Olidort, Ph.D. is director of the Center for American Security at the America First Policy Institute.