Weekly Recon 8 October 2016

Good Saturday morning and welcome to Weekly Recon. On this day in 1918, Sgt. Corporal Alvin C. York’s platoon was in the Argonne Forest, advancing toward the Decauville railway when they were hit with machine gun fire from all sides. The doughboys captured one gun, but the noise drew the fire of the remaining German emplacements, killing six and seriously wounding three Americans. As the most senior of the remaining doughboys, York went out alone to engage the enemy with just his rifle and service revolver, picking off the machine gunners one by one. When the fighting was over, York had single-handedly eliminated 35 machine guns, killed more than 20 Germans and taken 132 members of a Prussian Guards regiment as prisoners. A modest man, York shrugged off his heroic actions, saying, “It’s over; let’s forget it.”

A U.S. citizen and two Russian nationals were charged with illegally exporting U.S. microelectronics components, banned from export due to sensitive military applications, to Russia. Recent attempts by Chinese nationals to export sensitive military equipment have been thwarted, whereas, the Russian group succeeded by sending the equipment to Russia via Finland under false pretenses. The Russian heist was perhaps more threatening as well since the list of items included “electronic converters and integrated circuits,” crucial elements in challenging U.S. technological superiority in “radar and surveillance systems, missile guidance systems, and satellites.” 

According to the Department of Justice, the U.S. perpetrator, Alex Barysheff, used front companies established in 2015 to by the equipment. He was arrested in Brooklyn, while his Russian coconspirators were arrested in Denver. Assistant Attorney for National Security General John P. Carlin is quoted as saying that, “According to the complaints, Barysheff, Karpenko, and Krutilin conspired among themselves and with others to send sensitive U.S. technology surreptitiously to Russia in violation of U.S. export law.” It is unclear who the “others” are, but it can be assumed that Russian intelligence services played a role in the scheme. 

Russia’s long history of espionage seems to be ramping up efforts to levels not seen since the Cold War, and perhaps less challenging with the advent of cyber-espionage. This latest bust follows a similar case from 2012, where another group of individuals operating shell companies was found to have been exporting controlled microelectronic technologies to the Russian military and FSB. What else might the Russians be up to? 

Be Ready For More North Korean Shenanigans - Blake Baiers 

Tomorrow marks the tenth anniversary of North Korea’s first nuclear test, and Monday marks the 71st anniversary of the founding of the Worker’s Party of Korea. Analysts have forecasted a high potential for new provocative actions by the Kim regime, which may include another nuclear test, rocket launch, or satellite launch. High levels of recent activity by North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs beg the question, are they prepared for an “October surprise.” 

38 North reported on Friday that new activity had been spotted at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site that is indicative of a possible nuclear test. A 6th nuclear test could be timed to occur during Sunday’s presidential debate (Monday in North Korea), which would serve as a dual victory in celebration of the 71st anniversary of the Worker’s Party. 

A recent Pacific Pundit podcast (War on the Rocks’ new show hosted by Van Jackson) delves into the regional effects of North Korean nuclear program, and what the future could hold should North Korea continue down its current path at this pace. North Korea also appears to be steaming ahead on development of its second strike capabilities. While it cannot be confirmed at the moment, satellite imagery shows possible construction of a new submarine.  

For its part, the U.S. has finally stepped up its deterrence game by recently tested an ICBM, and dropped two dummy B61 nuclear bombs from B-2 stealth bombers. These actions serve a dual deterrent purpose aimed at both North Korea and Russia. Nevertheless, these tests are unlikely to deter Kim Jong-un from further nuclear brinksmanship. 

The Iran Deal, the Wrong Side of History – David Craig 

Author Jay Solomon of the Wall Street Journal recently launched his new book, The Iran Wars: Spy Games, Bank Battles, and the Secret Deals That Reshaped the Middle East at an event hosted by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies on Thursday.  The book centers on the intricate process of imposing sanctions and whether the sanctions achieved the desired effect.  In this case, the U.S. leveraged, or attempted to leverage, sanctions to halt, postpone if not eliminate, Iran’s nuclear ambitions.  The narrative that details the effort to successfully implement a successful sanctions regime is fascinating, but ultimately highlights failures in diplomacy, while leaving it to the reader to determine the overall effectiveness of the now infamous Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). 

The intensive sanctions work to align allies in Europe and at the United Nations was a monumental task, as outlined by Stuart Levey.  In fact, when the idea was first presented to Treasury Secretary Paulsen, he feared that a proposal to shut down all banks with unintentional accounting ties to Iran.  Instead, the final plan was simply to make European Banks aware of the secret bank dealings in Iran and their funding activities of nefarious activities throughout the region. The result was compliance by the European banks charting the course for what was perhaps the most effective sanctions regime to date.  It would bring the Iranian economy to near collapse in 2012 and 2013, making it ripe for negotiating JCPOA. 

What seemed to be a very successful sanctions regime was perhaps more successful than anticipated, due to President Ahmadinejad’s creative accounting.  During this time, the Iranian Economy was beset with 80% inflation and barely enough reserves to maintain their account liabilities. The dire economic situation in Iran gave the U.S. and Europe an incredible amount of leverage leading to the JCPOA, but inexpiably the Obama administration eased sanctions prior to the first meeting of international ministers to negotiate the terms of JCPOA.  Was this the unravelling of JCPOA and the slowing of Iran’s nuclear ambitions?  Jay Solomon lays the framework in a very insightful, interesting and detailed manner to allow the reader to decide, will we be on the right side of history?

SEND RCD YOUR INPUT: Please send your tips, suggestions and feedback to editors@realcleardefense.com. Make sure to follow RCD on Twitter at @RCDefense. You can also reach out to the editors David Craig and Blake Baiers on Twitter.