Moscow Prepares Annual Strategic-Level Military Exercise: Tsentr 2019

The highlight of every combat training year in the Russian Armed Forces is the annual strategic-operational exercise, sometimes designated as a strategic command-staff exercise. These rotate in terms of the primary focus of the exercise on the basis of the Military District or Joint Strategic Command (Obedinonnye Strategicheskoe Komandovanie—OSK): Zapad (West), Vostok (East), Tsentr (Center) and Kavkaz (Caucasus). The annual exercise this year focuses on the Central OSK; though, like in earlier annual strategic exercises, the forces involved will also be drawn from other OSKs. A pattern is emerging, however, in the break from tradition in Vosotok 2018, to include exercising with forces from China and Mongolia. In Tsentr 2019, scheduled for September 16–21, this is being expanded into an even more multilateral framework—to include forces from the regional members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as well as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) (Ridus.ru, September 6).

While the numbers of military personnel in such strategic-level exercises are often exaggerated, the tendency to claim it is the “biggest” since the collapse of the Soviet Union seems missing from this year’s official narrative. Some Russian analysts note, however, that the Tsentr 2019 scenario looks less like preparing for counter-terrorist actions, than for inter-state war; this has been a feature of all Russian strategic exercises in recent years, though not an exclusive dimension, as these build in multiple vignettes in order to rehearse using force in numerous conflict types. In the early part of the exercise, for instance, military operations will be worked out on the basis of “army against army,” with an emphasis on repelling enemy air missile strikes. The second stage will then transition into rehearsing counter-attacks (VPK, September 3).

In early September, the first echelons with military personnel and equipment from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) arrived in the Orenburg region to participate in the strategic command-staff exercise. Following the inclusion of Chinese forces in Russia’s annual strategic exercise Vostok 2018, it is likely much Russian media attention will play up the continued involvement of the PLA in such annual Russian mega drills. Earlier, an advanced group of PLA officers were greeted at the airport in Orenburg and helped with the loading of military hardware and equipment onto special heavy-duty carriers for the Russian military logistics service to carry out all the movements to the training grounds (Tvzvezda.ru, September 4).

The key questions are whether there are particular areas of interest the Russian military leadership will test or rehearse during Tsentr 2019; and if so, will this be mainly in isolation from the partner militaries or conducted as joint operations. In Tsentr 2015, as noted, the exercise was used to prepare for Russia’s deployment of forces to Syria that soon followed. That exercise also tested strategic mobility and included a degree of strategic messaging (see EDM, September 22, 2015).

The straight military aspects of the exercise will certainly be of interest to foreign analysts and governments—particularly those following the (debated) crystallization of the Russian-Chinese strategic partnership into something more akin to a full alliance (see EDM, July 30), or those examining the various elements of Russian approaches to warfare (see Russia’s Military Strategy and Doctrine, Jamestown, 2019). However, some of the most critical issues will concern the political-military dimension. As one Russian commentary summed it up, “Thus, the largest exercises of the Russian army are turning into a coalition with the participation of allied and friendly powers. This, of course, is a serious signal for the United States and NATO [the North Atlantic Treaty Organization]—if we estimate the combat potential of the countries participating in Tsentr, then even the most hyped figures from outdated directories about the power of NATO are not accurate” (Argumenti.ru, September 4).

It is difficult to imagine the circumstances in which Beijing, Delhi and Islamabad would all join forces with Moscow, given the differences between these powers. Yet, by staging its annual strategic-level exercises to include SCO members in this way, Russia clearly wants to raise the specter of alliance building. Although this seems may still be at a formative stage and remains easy to fold into an exercise, it may be the case that military planners in the US and NATO should not discount the possibility that if conflict breaks out with the Russian Federation, Moscow may not, in fact, be alone in the ensuing struggle.

Roger N. McDermott specializes in Russian and Central Asian defense and security issues and is a Senior Fellow in Eurasian Military Studies, The Jamestown Foundation, Washington DC, Senior International Research Fellow for the Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO), Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, and Affiliated Senior Analyst, Danish Institute for International Studies, Copenhagen. McDermott is on the editorial board of Central Asia and the Caucasus and the scientific board of the Journal of Power Institutions in Post-Soviet Societies. He recently wrote The Reform of Russia’s Conventional Armed Forces: Problems, Challenges and Policy Implications (October 2011).

This article appeared originally at The Jamestown Foundation's Eurasia Daily Monitor.