North Korea: Trump's Terrible Binary Choice

It is critical that we understand what North Korea’s test of a thermonuclear device means. North Korea claims that the weapon is miniaturised to fit onto a Hwasong­–14 intercontinental ballistic missile. We must assume this claim is true. North Korea’s advances have exceeded every expectation, indeed just hours before the test Pentagon officials were still insisting that North Korea was 6 to 18 months from a thermonuclear bomb.

To underscore this point, imagine in five years that North Korea possesses 100 ICBMs capable of reaching American mainland cities. North Korea could unleash conventional missiles at Japan and/or South Korea without any prospect of US retaliation, for this would invariably lead to the deaths of tens of millions of American citizens. This 'de-coupling' of America from its East Asian allies dramatically diminishes America's influence in the region, spurs nuclear proliferation, and accelerates the global power shift – to say nothing of the direct threat posed by North Korea's nuclear terror.

Others argue there is a possibility of dealing with North Korea and its nuclear program 'somewhere between peace and war'. This is a recipe for ineffectual policy incoherence. Now, after the abject policy failure of successive US administrations, President Trump is faced with a binary choice: accept mutual nuclear vulnerability with North Korea or embark on a major war on the Korean peninsula. There is no third option. I have engaged publicly in a four-part debate on this subject with Dr David Santoro, Director of Nuclear Policy at Pacific Forum CSIS. He believes continued deterrence is the answer. As for myself, I marched against the Iraq War and bitterly opposed the Libya intervention, and yet I reluctantly advocate war as the least-worst option.

President Trump now faces the unthinkable decision on how to proceed. Whatever action is taken now will have profound consequences for the US and the world. Yet a decision must be made. Or, as US Chief of Staff Milley starkly put it (from 50:12): 

Crispin Rovere is a member of the Australian Labor Party and previous convenor of the ACT ALP International Affairs Policy Committee. Formerly he was a PhD candidate at the ANU's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre (SDSC) and previously worked in Secretariat of the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, and published on nuclear policy. Crispin is the author of The Trump Phenomenon: How One Man Conquered America.

This article appeared originally at Lowy Institute's the interpreter.