Putin Is in a Perilous Position. Nothing Is Going To Save Him.

On May 28, Russian President Vladimar Putin visited the friendly neighboring country of Kazakhstan. The convoy that conveyed him through empty streets was extraordinary - 20 armored vehicles of various types, fourteen motorcycles, and an air cover of drones, helicopters, and jet fighters. Some of the vehicles had gun turrets and drone protection antennas. Even for the notoriously paranoid Putin this was remarkable.

The fear is not just of a Ukrainian drone attack, but of discontent from Russia itself. Discontent that is primarily a result of the war against Ukraine.

Putin initially became popular because he took credit for the stability that eventuated after the economic chaos caused by the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, because of the Ukraine war inflation is rampant. The BBC noted: “Everything [in Russia] became more expensive at the start of the year: meat, milk, salt, flour, potatoes, pasta, bananas, soap, toothpaste, socks, laundry detergent, and many medicines too.”

On May 28, a military helicopter lowered an anti-aircraft gun of the top of the Moscow skyscraper that houses the headquarters of the largest Russian oil company Rosneft - run by one of Putin’s closest cronies, Igor Sechin.

The Ukrainian attacks on oil facilities within Russia, are crippling the Russian economy. Domestic petrol prices inside Russia are the highest they have been in over 30 years. Oil and gas taxes account for roughly a quarter of government revenue. In Crimea, the sale of 95 octane gasoline is heavily restricted.

Putin shifts the blame -

Putin has run televised panels with his economic experts this year. He demands they address inflation and labor. In response Russian officials consistently attribute the country's economic struggles to external and administrative factors while actively avoiding any mention of the war in Ukraine.

Russia is a vast country that has traditionally relied on its extensive rail network to transfer its processed oil to supply its industry, and military. According to global security analyst Jeff Hawn, the Russian rail system is collapsing. It needs significant capital investment, and China, financially helpful in other areas, is not interested.

Putin tries to restrict the bad news. 

On February 12, Putin banned Telegram and Meta’s WhatsApp for use in Russia. About 60 million Russians, including the military, will now have to connect to the state-run system called Max. The military have also lost some connections to Starlink. Putin and his allies can now control all public access to the internet, and without the encryption features of Telegram, can easily monitor all conversations. The latter may not upset some Russians, who are accustomed to personal surveillance, but Russian soldiers and bloggers at the frontlines extensively used the former connections. 

Putin’s desperation is palpable.

On May 24, Russia launched two Oreshnik ballistic missiles at Ukraine’s capital, Kiev. Because of their speed and trajectory, they are extremely difficult to intercept. They are valued at about $US40 million each. The missiles killed three people and destroyed three rusting garages. The attack had no tactical value but sent a message to Europe and NATO - these missiles are capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

The expensive war in Ukraine, and the Ukrainian drone attacks within Russia, are deeply affecting the Russian economy and the Russian people. Putin is in a precarious position. He cannot withdraw from Ukraine without losing face. His threats against Europe appear hollow. Nevertheless, Russia has vast resources and a sizable population. On the other hand, any attempt to mobilize and conscript Russians who hitherto have been largely unaffected by the conflict could be disastrous.

Patrick Drennan is a journalist based in New Zealand, with a degree in American history and economics.