Putin Plans for Two More Years of War

Wearing a military uniform, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting on October 26 with his favorite subordinate General Valery Gerasimov and other commanders of the Russian forces. The recorded interview was designed to convince the Russian public that the army was making progress, and to reiterate the commitment to entirely seize the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson.  

Taking Pokrovsk will just force Ukraine to use the longer northern route to supply their front lines in this area. However, Pokrovsk is just a city, and like Bakhmut and Avdiivka, other cities in the region that Russia has gradually conquered over the last three years, it will not win the war.

Beyond Pokrovsk, Ukrainian forces have created strong layered defense lines composed of minefields, bunkers, artillery systems, and strike and reconnaissance drones.

Putin cannot accept the offer from President Trump for a ceasefire on the current frontlines without losing face at home.

Putin wants to continue the Ukraine war for another two years by selling oil to China and India (notwithstanding American sanctions), importing military materiel from China, and recruiting thousands of mercenaries from North Korea, and other nations.

While the Russian economy is suffering, talk of its demise is premature.

Firstly, Russia strictly controls its capital outflows. It is skilfully regulated by Russia’s Reserve Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina. Key measures include requiring exporters to sell a portion of their foreign currency earnings for rubles and restricting foreign companies from removing their assets from the country. Household and National debt are not excessive. Lately, Russia is seeking new investments and cryptocurrency transactions involving ‘friendly countries’.

Secondly, Russia cannot be blockaded. It has vast natural resources, such as grains, fisheries, oil and natural gas. Ukrainian strikes on oil and industrial sites will not destroy these resources. Russia will simply move them further East, or use proxy allies like Georgia and Tajikistan to refine their crude oil and export refined products to Europe, or back to Russia. Several companies based in the United Arab Emirates trade in Russian oil,

Finally, internal dissent is unlikely to topple the Putin regime. Dissension is violently crushed. On September 22, the United Nations reported an alarming escalation in repression, using the courts, torture, and coercive psychiatry to  target journalists, political opponents and anti-war activists.

It is not just suppression of the average Russian but even members of Putin’s inner circle, the Siloviki (‘power people’). Desperate for money the Russian prosecution service, under Putin’s guidance, have arrested several oligarchs and confiscated their fortunes. The latest being Supreme Court Judge Viktor Momotov, who owned properties, worth about $US107 million.

Nevertheless, there are reports of the Siloviki turning against each other, including dissatisfaction with Governor Nabiullina.

Sanctions on oil are not enough -  

Russian President Vladimir Putin, described American sanctions against Russian oil companies, which came two weeks after similar European sanctions, as “an unfriendly act towards Russia”. Most experts agree that they will not alter the war in the short to medium term.

One of the companies sanctioned, Lukoil, has joint ventures  in Iraq, Egypt, Bulgaria, Mexico, Romania, and Columbia, which are harder to unravel. In a dark irony the Chairman of the company Ravil Maganov, “fell out of a window” in 2022 and was replaced by one of Putin’s Siloviki.

According to the Indian news site Rediff, the Indian government denied President Trump's claim that they agreed to halt Russian oil supplies, and started October by importing 1.8 million barrels per day from Russia.

Furthermore the European Union was the largest buyer of Russian Liquefied natural gas in September, followed by China and Japan. They are all trying to divert or offset these imports, but this will take time.

Sanctions are not stopping Russia from buying and selling military equipment -

For example, an Indian/Russian joint venture known as BrahMos has procured a $155million dollar deal to produce Oniks supersonic anti-ship missiles for Indonesia (a silent partner in the venture).

According to Spectrum News, Vietnam purchases military equipment on credit from Russia, including jets and tanks, then repays the credit with profits from Vietsovpetro a joint Vietnam-Russia oil venture operating out of Siberia.

China continues to buy sanctioned oil and gas from Russia, and supplies Russia with arms and equipment, and with dual-use (military and industrial) components.

On October 24, before his whirlwind trip to Asia, President Trump said “I’d like China to help us out with Russia”. After meeting with Chinese Premier Xi Jinping, Trump said that they were going to “work together” on ending the war, without any further details.  

So, the status quo remains. Putin will only stop the Ukraine war if he encounters a serious setback on the battlefield, or his regime is overthrown.

Patrick Drennan is a journalist based in New Zealand, with a degree in American history and economics.