India-Pakistan: Regional Rivalries Still Rule in Afghanistan

Growing ties between India and the Taliban in Afghanistan have raised eyebrows in Pakistan, which doesn’t want to see a New Delhi-friendly Kabul due to its own security concerns.

Yaqoob is the son of Taliban founder Mullah Omar, who led the Taliban while it ruled in the late 1990s until 2001. Mullah Omar had forced India out of Afghanistan in 1996, and it was only following the 2001 US invasion that India was able to re-establish a presence.

Official statements aside, the visit does appear remarkable. For one thing it marks a U-turn in Taliban’s decades-old India policy, which has carried strategic implications for the region, particularly Pakistan. Engaging India could be a sign to indicate that Pakistan no longer wields a preponderant influence in the Taliban-led Afghanistan. The Indian visit certainly stirred concerns in Islamabad, with Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesperson declaring “we would not like to see anyone playing a role that is negative in any sense, or the role of a spoiler”. Another Pakistani official privately said reopening the Indian embassy in Kabul would not be an issue but questioned the need for any Indian consulates along the border regions of Pakistan.

And for India, opening a line of communication with the Taliban marks a significant change of policy. New Delhi had long been staunchly anti-Taliban, deeming the group to be Pakistan’s proxy. India has previously supported forces such as Northern Alliance and Ashraf Ghani’s government in Afghanistan. After the fall of Kabul last August, India was quick to close its embassy and pull officials out of the strife-torn country. 

Any Indian influence in Afghanistan alarms Pakistan. Islamabad has already accused New Delhi of using Afghan soil to fuel unrest in Pakistan through Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which orchestrates attacks on Pakistan from inside Afghanistan, as well as Baloch separatist groups that it considers benefit from India’s support.

But why would the Taliban, knowing Pakistan’s sensitivities, display an interest in engaging India?

The obvious answer might be that the Taliban are showing an “India card” to pressure Islamabad at a time when differences have developed with Pakistan over several issues, including border controls. Nonetheless, the timing is intriguing given that the Taliban is currently facilitating peace talks between Islamabad and the TTP in Kabul.

Relations between Pakistan and the Taliban have deteriorated since the August takeover in Kabul. A border skirmish in December hasn’t helped, nor has the TTP’s presence in Afghanistan. Pakistan launched a drone strike in April to target TTP hideouts inside Afghanistan and has continuously pressed the Taliban to crackdown on the militants. 

From India’s perspective, an Islamabad-friendly Kabul would undermine its strategic interests in Afghanistan. It appears New Delhi wants to take the opportunity to make a new start with the Taliban and by doing so upset the interests of an old enemy.

Syed Fazl-e-Haider is a contributing analyst at the South Asia desk of Wikistrat. He is a freelance columnist and the author of several books, including The Economic Development of Balochistan.

This article appeared originally at Lowy Institute's the interpreter.