If at First You Don't Succeed: Switzerland Plans Re-launch of F-5 Tiger Fighter Replacement Program

Almost one year after Swiss voters rejected a proposal to purchase 22 Swedish-built Gripen E combat aircraft to replace the Swiss Air Force's aging fleet of F-5 Tigers, Switzerland's government is now looking to re-launch its original F-5E Tiger Replacement Program (or TTE Project, as it was referred to by the Swiss Federal Department of Defense, Civil Protection and Sport (DDPS)).

But the F-5 Tigers – delivered to the Swiss Air Force between 1978 and 1984 – are fast approaching the end of their usable service lives, thus forcing the DDPS to revisit the project for their replacement.

Switzerland's location – in the heart of Europe, surrounded by friendly nations – and staunch neutrality appear on the surface to render the requirement for more combat aircraft a questionable one. But the country has a decidedly independent streak, and its history has led it to emphasize military deterrence (as in the case of World War II). Part of that deterrence is built upon an independent combat air arm.

Thus the emphasis in some quarters of Switzerland's political sphere, as well as in the DDPS, for the F-5 replacement effort to be re-launched – and quickly. Defense Minister Ueli Maurer has set 2017 as the target date for new fighter evaluations to be conducted.

A constant problem for Swiss military aircraft procurement efforts has been meeting public approval. Switzerland's direct democracy model allows for voters to generate a plebiscite, provided that 50,000 valid and verifiable voter signatures – or eight of Switzerland's 26 cantons (states within the greater federal state) – call for one. For a neutral country that has not fought a war in 200 years, the idea of procuring expensive new-generation combat aircraft is considered an extravagance and, in the case of the proposed Gripen purchase, opponents of the project had little difficulty collecting the required signatures.

Added to this problem is the protracted nature of Swiss fighter purchases. This is partially due to the need by the DDPS and Federal Council to massage voter concerns but also the result of prudent – overly careful some might argue – decision-making. For instance, while the TTE Project was launched in 2007, a down-select was not determined until November 30, 2011. By the time the entire exercise went to referendum, it was May 2014 – seven years after the project had been green-lighted by the Swiss legislature, the Federal Assembly.

On the domestic approval front, the pacifist organization Group for Switzerland Without an Army (GSoA) will always present an obstacle. But, then, any prospective aircraft selected to replace the Tigers is destined to require public approval, as previous Swiss fighter buys have resulted in scandal (the 1964 purchase of Dassault Mirage IIIs resulted in severe cost overruns that forced the Air Force chief, chief of general staff and defense minister all to resign) and referendum (the 1993 purchase of the current fleet of Hornets). 

In the meantime, the F-5 Tiger fleet will have to remain in service most likely through 2020 (the DDPS had slated the fleet for retirement by 2016 when planning for the Gripen E procurement). With the F/A-18 Hornet fleet likely to be phased out post-2030, suddenly the DDPS faces the possible challenge of replacing two platforms instead of one, rather than merely augmenting the Hornets.

Because of cost concerns and the need for numbers, the Gripen E will most likely emerge the favorite under any re-launched Tiger replacement program. The Swiss Air Force is already familiar with the likely contestants – the Gripen, the Eurofighter Typhoon and the Dassault Rafale – from the previous competition. The questions now confronting the DDPS are how fast they can move a Tiger successor project forward in order to ensure phased replacement of the existing Swiss Air Force fleet, and – perhaps as importantly – whether, this time, voters will block the purchase.

Daniel Darling is an international military markets analyst at Forecast International Inc., an aerospace and defense market research company located in Newtown, Connecticut. A graduate of Kansas State University, Dan covers the Europe and Asia-Pacific Rim military markets for Forecast, and formerly was responsible for the Middle East as well. He has been quoted or his work cited in: Arabian Business, Defense News, The Financial Times, Flight International, The National, The New York Times, Bloomberg, National Defense Magazine and Small Wars Journal, among others.