Running Out the Clock on Vladimir Putin

On July 14^th, President Donald Trump set a deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine – 50 days. The war’s death toll and the Russian leader’s bad faith negotiating tactics had exceeded the president’s patience threshold and it was time for the Trump Administration to weigh in more heavily than it had thus far. President Trump threatened sanctions and secondary sanctions if Putin didn’t stop the conflict, offering increased military support to Ukraine as well. Putin was on the clock!

The meeting that took place the following Monday between President Trump, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and European Union and NATO leaders was a powerful sign of unity among allies and partners. Statements about iron-clad security guarantees further demonstrated tight-knit cooperation and long-term commitment. Yet, the most significant outcome may have been the opportunity to firmly shift responsibility back to Russia to prove a willingness to negotiate and act in good faith. Since then, Putin has done just the opposite.

The last two weeks have seen Russia negotiating and acting in a particularly extreme version of bad faith. Putin’s government has made statements refusing a bilateral meeting with Zelenskyy and demanding a veto of any security guarantees or subsequent security assistance to Ukraine. Russia has increased strikes on civilian targets and even destroyed a U.S. civilian factory in western Ukraine. Every bad faith statement and action demonstrates disrespect to the President of the United States and likely proves that Putin blatantly lied to President Trump in Alaska. Meanwhile, the clock ticks on and the death toll rises.

It’s worth a bit of detour to another clock with another timeline that was directed towards another adversary – those related to Iran’s nuclear program earlier this year. President Trump set an ambitious timeline – 60 days. While the timeline pressure, coupled with snapback sanctions that would destroy Iran’s economy, were enough to bring Iran to the negotiating table, their bad faith negotiating tactics scuttled success while demonstrating disrespect to the President of the United States. Without fanfare, the timeline ticked away. And on the 61^st day, Iran suffered the consequences of their failure to meet Trump’s clearly defined deadline.

President Trump has allowed the summit follow-up between Russia and Ukraine to play out without utilizing American leverage. He continues to make statements lamenting the ongoing death toll of the war and about the possibility of stepping away from the mediator role. Yet, at the same time, he has implied something far more important – that we will all see what happens in the next week or two. After all, a clearly defined deadline remains and the clock is ticking away without fanfare. The earliest of those comments was given two weeks ago, and the 51^st day from the original deadline arrives on September 3^rd. The clock is running out for President Putin.

Timelines, pressure, and strength resonate with Putin. So do economic threats and looming costs. The imposition of sanctions and secondary sanctions on September 3^rd would provide a powerful signal – to Putin and to others. Stall tactics, bad faith negotiating, and deception may work for a while, but not when the clock runs out. In the case of Ukraine, increasing weapons sales, removing weapon system limitations, and even considering the distribution to Ukraine of the 300 billion dollars in seized Russian Central Bank funds are all ways to punctuate the credibility of President Trump, the United States of America, and the clearly defined timelines that were established nearly 50 days ago. Tick-tock Vladimir!

Brig. Gen. John Teichert (U.S. Air Force, ret.) is a leading expert on foreign affairs and military strategy. He served as commander of Joint Base Andrews and Edwards Air Force Base, was the U.S. senior defense official to Iraq, and recently retired as the assistant deputy undersecretary of the Air Force for international affairs. A prolific author and speaker, he can be followed at johnteichert.com and on LinkedIn.