When and How Will the War in Ukraine End?

The Ukrainian people have cut the war's duration in half. But we still have to wait for Operation Epic Fury to conclude!

The actual negotiation process for Ukraine consists of three stages. As of May 5, 2026, not a single stage has been completed.

According to the original plan, the key stages of the negotiations were supposed to look like this:

The current situation demonstrates that Europeans do not recognize the United States as a mediator in negotiations with Russia. That is, the EU does not recognize the U.S. conclusions regarding the outcome of the war. The EU is willing to recognize the United States only if America makes decisions consistent with Europe's wishes. But this places the United States in a subordinate position to Europe. American politicians cannot accept this. The Americans, on the contrary, want the Europeans to recognize their subordinate position.

In the current situation, the natural solution is to continue the war. Russia, dominating the battlefield, will sooner or later force the Europeans to admit defeat in Ukraine. This means Russia will initiate the implementation of Russian-American agreements. This will also be facilitated by the United States, which, after gaining control of oil production in the Persian Gulf, will gain additional leverage over the EU economy. This is the main goal of the military operation "Epic Fury." The essence of this operation is described in detail in the article "Epic Fury as It Is: A Look Inside". ⁽²⁾

Let's be honest. The wars in Ukraine and the Persian Gulf are two interconnected wars. In both cases, the U.S. is using unfriendly states to take control of friendly states. The U.S. is fighting the EU using Russia. The U.S. is fighting the oil-producing countries of the Persian Gulf using Iran. This is described in detail in the article "Trump's Two Wars for 'Make America Great Again'". ⁽³⁾ Both wars are directed more against the EU than against anyone else.

The Ukrainian people have found themselves in hell because of the low professionalism of Ukrainian politicians. This episode of this policy is described in detail in the article "The Real Zelensky in the Ukrainian Conflict."⁽⁴⁾ Ukrainian politicians allowed external players to exploit Ukraine for the benefit of foreign countries. Initially, these external players were the U.S. and the EU. Then Russia joined them. This had a dramatic impact on Ukraine. What is the country's possible future?

Ukraine ceased to exist as an independent state in 2014. The country was then completely occupied by European and Russian invaders. By using information manipulation of the Ukrainian population, the Europeans were able to create crowds of aggressive Euro-collaborators who, through the Euromaidan, seized most of Ukraine. The Russians, using regular military units and Russian collaborators among Ukrainian citizens, seized a small part of Ukraine. Russia annexed Crimea and parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

The current war in Ukraine is a war between European and Russian occupiers who are exploiting Ukraine's population and territory for their own ends. The end of Ukraine's existence as a territory occupied by Europeans and Russians will be the final end of the war. Thus, the actual end of the war entails one of three possible scenarios:

A complete transfer of Ukraine under European control is impossible, as the military situation is unfavorable for the European occupation regime. Negative trends began in 2015-2016. At that time, an optimal theater of military operations had not been formed, and the necessary human resources for defeating Russia had not been accumulated. This is discussed in detail in the article "Who, How, and For What Actually Fought in Ukraine."⁽⁵⁾

The remaining two scenarios depend on agreements between the U.S., Russia, and Europe. Russia and Europe, by offering the U.S. various benefits of cooperation, could secure a favorable peace deal in Ukraine. The most likely outcome for Europeans in the current situation is the restoration of an independent Ukrainian state. This would theoretically give Europeans the opportunity for revenge, quite possibly with U.S. assistance. This would allow Europe to repeat the Euromaidan. The most favorable outcome for Russians is the complete transfer of Ukraine under Russian control.

There is no information that the EU is trying to offer the U.S. many benefits in exchange for Ukraine. The transfer of Greenland to the U.S. is not being discussed by European politicians.⁽⁶⁾ The Europeans are trying to change the new trade agreement to their advantage.⁽⁷⁾ The Europeans are also not demonstrating loyalty to American foreign policy. For example, the EU did not support Operation Epic Fury. Furthermore, the Europeans are exerting strong informational influence on American society in an attempt to replicate their success in Ukraine.⁽⁸⁾ The only concession the Europeans have made is agreeing to purchase American weapons for the war in Ukraine.⁽⁹⁾ As we can see, the Europeans are in no hurry to gain a decisive vote in deciding Ukraine's fate. This greatly reduces the chances of the revival of an independent Ukrainian state.

The stinginess of European politicians is very beneficial to Putin. The Russian president is exploiting his advantage on the battlefield to gain complete control over Ukraine. Russia is conducting a classic military invasion. Putin is primarily using Russian citizens for combat. But the Europeans are conducting military operations under a false flag—the flag of Ukraine. This means that in their war with Russia, the Europeans are using Ukrainian citizens, whom they are turning into Euro-collaborators through propaganda.

Since 2024, the Ukrainian army has been experiencing a recruitment shortage. This means that the Russians are killing Euro-collaborators faster than European propaganda can create them. This is a strategic victory for Putin. He's not interested in seizing territory or winning battles. He's interested in reducing the proportion of Euro-collaborators to a critical level.

Russia is methodically reducing the share of Euro-collaborators in the overall Ukrainian population. Sooner or later, this share will become so small that there will not be enough Euro-collaborators to maintain the European occupation of Ukraine. By the spring of 2026, Putin has achieved impressive success in this matter. This is detailed in the article "The Horrible Truth About Ukraine's Territorial Recruitment Centers (TRCs)". ⁽¹⁰⁾

In the current situation, Vladimir Vladimirovich doesn't need to be generous. It's enough not to be stingy like the Europeans and to be smarter than them. Russia, by supporting Iran in its war against the United States, is actually providing Trump with a very valuable service. Because Iran's ability to wage a protracted war is the foundation for the success of Operation Epic Fury.⁽²⁾ Although Russia's proposals to the United States are not fully known (and Putin has publicly offered to build a transport corridor in the Bering Strait and joint mineral extraction), it's clear that Russia's position is superior to Europe's. This increases the chances of Ukraine fully coming under Russian control.

But this will happen not as a result of peace negotiations, but as a result of victory in the war. That is, Putin will first seize all of Ukraine. And then formalize this seizure legally through negotiations. If the Europeans had given in to American demands, everything would have been the other way around: first negotiations, then an end to the war. This would not have changed the outcome of the war. But it would have saved Ukrainian lives. But Europe is not giving in to U.S. demands. Therefore, the war will continue until one side capitulates. In other words, points 2 and 3 of the negotiation process are reversed. First there will be a cessation of hostilities, and then peace negotiations.

Of course, in this case, the third point becomes unnecessary. Just as European consensus becomes unnecessary. The rule of the strong guarantees everything to Russia!

Most likely, the fighting will end in the east of the country due to the lack of sufficient European collaborators to resist the Russian army. Therefore, the Russian army will seize most of Ukraine without a fight. The population of Western Ukraine will not resist en masse. And the Russians will not destroy cities and infrastructure. Loyalty in exchange for the absence of hostilities. This is the principle of the Russian army's final advance toward the Ukrainian-European border.

It's paradoxical. But the Ukrainian people, having lost their independence, continue to influence events in the country. But they do so not democratically, but rather by breaking the law. According to official data, as of early 2026, approximately 2,000,000⁽¹¹⁾ Ukrainian men failed to update their data at recruiting centers to avoid conscription. Another nearly 200,000 men deserted the army.⁽¹¹⁾ In total, this amounts to approximately 2,200,000 people. This is almost equal to the number of Ukrainian men serving in the army (according to official data) and those already killed or wounded during the war (according to unofficial data). These amounts are approximately 800,000⁽¹²⁾ and 1,700,000⁽¹³⁾ people, respectively. That is, there are enough unwilling soldiers and deserters to continue the war for four years. Exactly as long as this war has been going on.

In other words, those unwilling to serve in the army and deserters have reduced military operations by four years, or by half. The actions of these people contribute to Russia's victory and the EU's defeat. But in the current situation, which of the two occupiers emerges victorious is irrelevant. When national interests are betrayed by national politicians, the only correct decision for voters is to save their own lives.

Pavlo Kuliuk is a journalist with 15 years of experience. Author columns in Red Hook Daily Catch (New York, USA) and Australian Rural & Regional News (Australia).

1.https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2025/03/19/donald_trumps_peace_formula_is_to_exchange_ukraine_for_russia_1098497.html

2.https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2026/03/28/epic_fury_as_it_is_a_look_inside_1173267.html

3.https://www.opednews.com/populum/page.php?f=Trump-s-Two-Wars-for-Make-American-Foreign-Policy_Trump_Trump-And-Putin_Trump-Diplomacy-260503-206.html

4.https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2024/02/15/the_real_zelensky_in_the_ukrainian_conflict_1011978.html

5.https://www.opednews.com/populum/page.php?f=Who-how-and-for-what-actu-America_Ukraine_Ukraine-Crisis-250317-235.html

6.https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/18/europe/europe-greenland-threat-tariffs-analysis-intl

7.https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c33l4e6vdrvo

8.https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2025/03/14/why_the_us_and_europe_are_no_longer_friends_1097556.html

9.https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2026/04/23/council-finalises-90-billion-support-loan-to-ukraine/

10.https://www.opednews.com/populum/page.php?f=The-Horrible-Truth-About-U-Russia_Truth_Ukraine_Ukraine-Coup-260220-487.html

11.https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/14/world/ukraines-new-defense-chief-reveals-200-000-soldiers-have-gone-awol-and-2-million-are-draft-dodging

12.https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/zelenskyy-announces-size-of-ukrainian-armed-1765471020.html

13.https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/ukraine-lost-million-personnel-war-files-generations