Russia Makes Its Presence Known in Iran Crisis

Recent revelations make it clear that Iran’s willingness to confront the U.S. following the strike that killed Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad was not driven just by a mix of domestic considerations and a compelling desire to retaliate. Iran’s bluntly open challenge to the U.S. may have been backed by another major military power: Russia.

Despite the two
countries’ improved
bilateral relations,
strengthening
strategic dialogue,
and increasing
economic and
military cooperation,
Iran is a partner
of convenience
for Moscow –
not a close friend
or a client – and
there is little
doubt that Russia
has benefited
from the killing
of Solemaini.

Even limited open-source data, including unclassified satellite imagery, suggests high-precision hits of selected targets intended (a) to demonstrate the lethality of Iran’s enhanced tactical missile strike capability and its capacity to inflict damage on physical infrastructure, and (b) to keep human fatalities to a minimum. Iran’s missiles were likely equipped with satellite guidance and target-tracking capabilities with access to one of the global navigation satellite systems.

In late December, Russia, China, and Iran held their first trilateral naval exercise, Marine Security Belt, in the Indian Ocean and the strategically sensitive Gulf of Oman. While both Russia and China stopped short of describing the exercise as a form of deterrence against hostile action towards Iran, the message was clear: both military powers were showing solidarity with Tehran amid escalating political-military tensions.

A few examples illustrate the point. Shortly after the U.S.-Iran crisis erupted, Moscow was on the move, backing Iran politically and militarily. On 7 January, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a surprise visit to Syria before visiting neighbouring Turkey. The aim was not just to show continuing support for the regime of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad. The fact that Putin met with Assad at Russia’s regional operations and command centre was both symbolic and telling: Moscow keeps a close eye on regional developments and is ready to react to any form of escalation.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (centre) meets with Vladimir Putin at the command post of the Russian Armed Forces in Syria, 7 January (Photo: kremlin.ru)

Following the visit to Turkey, Putin attended large-scale naval exercises held by the Russian Navy in the Black Sea. The timing and locale of the exercises was equally revealing – Russia was again showcasing its military might, including offensive firepower, as a warning to the U.S. and its allies that it will not act as a passive observer should Iran come under attack.

Russia’s determination to contain U.S. actions in the region was also highlighted by a near collision between Russian and U.S. warships in the Arabian Sea on 9 January, the same day as the Russian naval exercises in the Black Sea. Russian intelligence-gathering vessel RFS Ivan Hurs nearly hit the USS Farragut destroyer while shadowing operations of a U.S. aircraft carrier battle group in the area.

Russian air defence units have been closely monitoring airspace over and around Iran and probably sharing intelligence with Tehran. On 17 January, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that at least six fifth-generation F-35 tactical aircraft were spotted near Iranian airspace shortly after Iranian missile attacks on U.S. facilities in Iraq.

Russia’s stance on foreign intervention in Iran is likely driven by several considerations:

In addition, other factors may influence Moscow’s behaviour:

Still, it would be premature to assume that Russia has unconditionally taken the side of Iran. On one hand, Moscow used an array of diplomatic and military signals to demonstrate that Iran is not alone, and that unilateral action will not go unanswered. On the other, it applied pressure on Tehran to restrain its actions and avoid further escalation.

Despite the two countries’ improved bilateral relations, strengthening strategic dialogue, and increasing economic and military cooperation, Iran is a partner of convenience for Moscow – not a close friend or a client – and there is little doubt that Russia has benefited from the killing of Solemaini, who was instrumental to Iran’s strategic leverage in Syria, a concern for Moscow for some time. His death will have serious long-lasting impact on Iran’s capacity to influence the Asad regime and on the freedom that Iranian-backed units exercised in Syria. Putin’s surprise visit to Damascus indicates that Moscow was quick to fill the power vacuum and show Asad the dominant factor now in Syria.

Moreover, the Russian budget profited from the hike in oil prices.

Moscow’s involvement highlights both the complexity and the potential fragility of the Iran crisis, especially when two nuclear powers provoke each other against a backdrop of regional tensions. In Syria, there have been a number of reports of Russian and U.S. forces blocking each other’s operations. In the absence of an immediate political solution and a desire to defuse tensions, the crisis in the Gulf will continue to be a ticking time bomb.

Dr. Alexey D. Muraviev is Associate Professor of National Security and Strategic Studies at Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia. He is the founder and Director of the Strategic Flashlight forum on national security and strategy at Curtin. He was also a non-residential fellow at Sea Power Centre Australia, Royal Australian Navy, and inaugural scholar-in residence, Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

This article appeared originally at Lowy Institute's the interpreter.