The Quiet War With China

When most of us think of war, we picture bombs, soldiers, and fighter jets. The biggest fear in many people’s minds, especially during election seasons, is a nuclear war. But there is another kind of war happening right now, one that doesn’t use missiles but is just as important. It’s an economic war. In today’s world, the country that controls the global economy is the most powerful. And right now, the United States is in a serious long-term struggle with China for that top spot.

China’s strategy is rooted in its ancient philosophy. Thinkers like Confucius, Sun Tzu (author of The Art of War), and others taught the value of patience, strategy, and intelligence. You can even see this in modern Chinese technology. They have developed advanced artificial intelligence, like a system called DeepSeek. I’ve used it extensively, and it feels different from Western AI—smarter in some ways and built with a mindset that values long-term planning and strategic thinking, much like those ancient philosophers taught.

So, what exactly is an “economic war”?

At its core, it’s a fight over who controls the world’s money system. For decades, the U.S. dollar has been the global currency. This started with an agreement in 1944. Then, in 1971, America took the dollar off the “gold standard.” This meant the dollar’s value wasn’t directly tied to a physical asset like gold anymore. Instead, its strength was backed by the sheer size and power of the U.S. economy and its military. This allowed the U.S. to print more money when needed.

But this system is now being challenged. A group of nations called BRICS (which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) is creating its own financial network. Without China, this group wouldn’t be very powerful. But with China leading it, they have a lot of influence. They are building systems to move money that compete directly with the U.S.-controlled system we’ve used for decades. Even the "petrodollar"—the system that forced oil to be sold in U.S. dollars—is becoming less important. This is a huge shift in global power.

The real problem is whether American leaders truly understand this shift. In my view, many do not, at least not in a serious way. Large institutions like the Pentagon or the State Department can become “inbred” in their thinking. This means they often promote ideas from within their own circles and have a hard time accepting new or outside perspectives. “Thinking outside the box” is rare when everyone inside the box has the same training and background.

We saw a version of this after the 9/11 attacks. The U.S. focused on hunting down Osama bin Laden. When we finally did, it felt like a victory. But bin Laden’s real strategy was a war of attrition. He wanted to drag America into long, expensive conflicts that would drain our money and our spirit. In that goal, he was sadly successful. We spent trillions of dollars and vast amounts of energy on wars while our competitor, China, was focused on building its economy and influence.

After running many mental, computer simulations and thought experiments on this situation, I’ve come to a difficult conclusion. The best outcome America can realistically hope for is not a clear victory over China, but a strategic draw. We need to find a way to live alongside China as an equal power. This will be very hard for the American public to accept. We are used to being the unquestioned number one. As the U.S. dollar loses its unique global status, the cost of living for Americans will likely rise dramatically. The middle class is already in trouble, we are on a precipice of a disaster. Ask yourself how much it cost to fill your Grocery basket up a year ago and how much does it cost today.

This isn’t a pretty picture. But we have to face it. The first step is to recognize that the battlefield has changed. The next war won’t necessarily start with a shot, but with a shift in the global financial system. The second step is to break out of our old ways of thinking. We need leaders and institutions that can innovate as quickly in economics and technology as we once did in military hardware.

America still has immense strengths: our universities, our culture of innovation, our entrepreneurial spirit, and our democratic values. In China there's no such thing as Diversity Equity Inclusion. It has a pure meritocracy system that was developed 2600 years ago by the philosopher Confucius... Meritocracy was not a European invention. We must wake up to the new reality. We are in a quiet, ongoing economic war. To secure our future, we must learn to fight and compete on this new battlefield. The time to start is now.

Paul F. Renda has spent over 40 years in information security. He has spoken at a number of above-ground and below-ground hacker conferences. He studied physics and math at Queens College and the University of Houston, and he has worked as a system administrator for IBM Z/OS and Linux systems.