China’s efforts, both legal and illegal, to acquire America’s intellectual property (IP) have long been a central theme in the U.S.–China relationship. A new book, The Great Heist: China’s Epic Campaign to Steal America’s Secrets, by David R Shedd and Andrew Badger, both formerly of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, offers a welcome and up-to-date forensic analysis of the issue.

The authors cite the FBI estimate of IP theft (mainly by China) which has cost the U.S. economy up to U.S. $600 billion (A$860 billion) a year over the past decade. Industrial espionage has been a driving catalyst for the rise of China, even if other factors have also played a role. According to some estimates China may already have a technological edge against the United States. ASPI’s Critical Technology Tracker estimates that China now publishes the most high-impact research in 69 of the 74 technologies tracked, with the U.S. leading in the remaining five.

For years, American leaders have warned about the dangers of depending on China for products that are critical to our economy and national security. Semiconductors, rare earth minerals, telecommunications equipment, and energy technologies have all received well-deserved scrutiny. The medicines and biotechnology that underpin public health deserve the same attention, and the competition in that field is moving faster than many policymakers realize.

Today, China occupies a central position in the global pharmaceutical supply chain, particularly with regards to the key starting materials used to manufacture many essential medicines. Hundreds of drugs approved for use in the United States rely on at least one chemical produced solely in China, in part because Beijing has heavily subsidized its chemical and drug-ingredient producers, allowing them to sell at prices competitors elsewhere struggle to match. This creates a vulnerability that impacts not just healthcare but also our national security.

For years, Washington’s strategic debate on China has swung between two contrasting fears: an unstoppable colossus destined to rewrite the global order, and the hope that its economic headwinds will simply stall its momentum. But as analysts begin to introduce the possibility of a sudden and severe structural fracture within Beijing, this binary view misses a far more dangerous reality. Western policymakers are not facing a single trajectory. Instead, they must prepare for a dual threat, the danger of a sudden, desperate collapse on one end, and the consolidation of an illiberal hegemony on the other.

When looking at the world, Western democracies tend to project the stability and equilibrium of their own liberal systems onto others, assuming that foreign powers operate under similar rules. We often forget that China is an autocracy, and autocracies are unstable by definition and prone to sudden surprises. Western leaders know this history very well, yet they repeatedly choose to forget it. China’s system is not a model for anyone.