Islamic State's Collapse. Death of the IS Propaganda Machine

BEIRUT (AP) — Supported by crutches and a fellow Islamic State jihadi, Abu Shuaib al-Maslawi hopped on his left leg toward the explosives-laden black SUV that he would minutes later plow into a group of Iraqi troops in the northern city of Mosul.

“I urge you in the name of God that before sunset may your swords be dripping with the infidels’ blood,” said al-Maslawi, who appeared to be in his 50s, with a long gray beard and a black Islamic skull cap. “Every drop of blood that is spilled there will reduce pressure on us,” he added, gripping the steering wheel.

Drone footage then showed the heavily armored SUV careening into a line of Iraqi troop vehicles parked outside a building in Mosul, followed by an explosion, a huge fire ball and a cloud of black smoke.

Posted by IS on social media in late May, the video contains a change in message and tone that reflects the pressure the extremist group is under as it continues to lose ground in Iraq and Syria.

The Islamic State group’s propaganda machine used to be confident, promising that its self-declared caliphate would be “lasting and expanding.” But in recent months, as the group’s territory has shrunk, its messages have as well.

Slickly produced IS propaganda videos shot from multiple angles with religious songs in the background used to spread fear among the group’s opponents, with gruesome footage of beheadings, shootings, confessions of detainees and sophisticated attacks against their rivals. In the videos, the group boasted that Muslims from all over the world were flocking to what they called the “first caliphate” since the fall of the Ottoman Empire a century ago.

Now the videos mostly urge fighters to be steadfast and call on the local population to join the group after hundreds of IS fighters have been killed over the past months.

“The propaganda of the organization has become zero to be frank. It indicates their collapse and that the group is retreating,” said Omar Abu Laila, a Syrian opposition activist now based in Germany who is originally from Syria’s eastern province of Deir el-Zour, held by IS. “Their calls for people to join the group are signs of weakness.”

A major blow came in August, when an airstrike in Syria claimed by the U.S. and Russia killed Abu Mohammed al-Adnani, the group’s chief spokesman and senior commander who was known for fiery speeches that used to boost the morale of fighters. In 2014, after the group declared its caliphate, al-Adnani vowed to conquer Baghdad as well as the Shiite holy cities of Najaf and Karbala in southern Iraq.

Another blow came in October when a U.S. airstrike in Syria killed Wael al-Fayadh, better known as Abu Mohammed al-Furqan, who was in charge of producing highly professional propaganda videos. One of the group’s main media arms, Al-Furqan Media, was named after him. He was replaced by Abu Bashir al-Maslawi, who was killed a short time later.

In late May, the founder of the group’s Aamaq news agency, Baraa Kadek, was reportedly killed along with his daughter in an airstrike in the eastern Syrian town of Mayadeen.

A video released last month titled “Answer the Call” urged young men to join IS to make up for the loss of manpower.

“What are you waiting for? The infidels have gathered around us from all over the world,” it said, showing scenes of IS fighters trying to persuade men in mosques and clubs to join the fight as suicide bombers.

Another titled, “We will guide them to our path,” showed two men, one from Canada and the other from Britain, carrying out a suicide attack in Mosul. The video also tried to market the group as an organization that can produce its own weapons, such as rocket-propelled-grenades, shells and remote-controlled small vehicles that can carry mines.

“They have produced 158 videos since November ... and none of them were professional like ‘Salil al-Sawarem,’” said Hisham al-Hashimi, an expert on IS who advises the Iraqi government. He was referring to a video — “Crack of the Swords,” in English — that was released days before IS captured Mosul in the summer of 2014 and was widely believed to have helped speed the collapse of Iraqi forces defending the city.

“Today ... there is nothing that differentiates between their (videos) and those of other ... rebel factions,” al-Hashimi said. “It only calls for defensive operations, suicide bombings and to be steadfast. Nothing more.”

Despite the battlefield setbacks in Iraq and Syria, IS has been quick to claim responsibility for recent overseas attacks in Britain, Iran and elsewhere. The Iranian Intelligence Ministry said five assailants in the twin attacks this week in Tehran had previously fought for IS in Iraq and Syria, and the extremist group’s Aamaq news agency released a 24-second video purportedly filmed inside parliament during one of the attacks.

Besides Aamaq and Al-Furqan the group has a number of media outlets to spread its message as well as an online radio station, Al-Bayan, and online weekly magazines, Al-Nabaa and Dabiq.

Social media networks keep closing accounts created by IS propagandists but the group has so far been able to create new ones. In one widely circulated text message on social media, followers were urged not to publish the group’s link so that it wouldn’t be closed because “we are being subjected to a harsh campaign.”

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