The U.S. Needs a Strategic Shift in South Asia

Pakistan is in trouble. A lackluster economy, endemic corruption, abysmal human development indicators, and terrorism are just some of the problems plaguing the country. Many Pakistanis have voted on the country’s perilous situation with their feet choosing to leave in large numbers, and in some cases at a tremendous risk to their own lives.  It is high time that the U.S. also consider its complete exit from Pakistan.

One reason that has gained traction among policymakers and pundits alike for continued engagement with Pakistan is to forestall the country’s complete embrace of China. Those taking this stance seem to misunderstand the current state of affairs. Pakistan’s wholehearted embrace of China is a foregone conclusion.

Similarly, the idea that Washington should engage with Pakistan to curb China’s influence is imprudent. This idea plays into Pakistan’s storied tradition of rent-seeking behavior designed to extract assistance from foreign powers to avoid making much-needed structural changes domestically. The country has banked on its location to secure American aid through Cold War security pacts, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and the subsequent Global War on Terror. Each time, it has primarily pursued its narrow security objectives to the detriment of the U.S., ranging from starting wars with India using U.S.-made weaponry to providing the Taliban with safe havens from which to sustain an insurgency. Islamabad would be happy to continue taking in U.S. aid to pursue its misplaced policy prerogatives as it cements ties with China.

Pakistan’s establishment, the coterie of military and civilian leaders that run the country, finds China’s authoritarian model of economic development appealing in a country where democracy has never firmly established itself. China can be counted on to sustain the establishment’s rent-seeking behavior absent American concerns for democracy, human rights, and terrorism. Indeed, Islamabad has ventured beyond economics to explore other avenues of assistance. Recently, a China-style firewall has been implemented to restrict internet content amidst a general decline in freedom of expression.

Even if Pakistan wanted to reassess its relationship with China to open up the possibility of rapprochement with the U.S., it could not due to its subservient status. Islamabad has fallen into a debt trap from which it shows no signs of getting out of soon. America should not be too concerned about this, however. China is also trapped in this relationship, which has brought little dividends thus far. Given Pakistan’s poor investment climate, Chinese investments under the much-feted China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) are unsurprisingly not coming to fruition.

Meanwhile, the deaths of Chinese workers and contractors continues to be a source of contention between both countries. This situation is unlikely to improve anytime soon. China will soon find that its sustenance of Pakistan’s rent-seeking behavior will defer any serious domestic reforms needed to capitalize on billion-dollar investments.

America can let China suffer with Pakistan. While the U.S. does not have traditional allies in the region, it is better served by strengthening ties with India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka to offset China’s influence. New Delhi, Dhaka, and Colombo enjoy robust trade with the U.S.. And unlike Pakistan, they have made the necessary human capital and infrastructure investments to take advantage of an increasingly globalized economy. The security situation is also far better for investors in these countries. U.S. FDI in Sri Lanka alone, with a population of around 22 million, was $234 million in 2022 compared to $127 million for Pakistan, with a population of over 250 million.

There are encouraging signs that increased U.S. engagement will bear fruit. India continues to remain wary of China. Those lamenting the recent democratic backsliding in India as a potential strain on relations would do well to remember that the U.S. has key partners in the Middle East with comparatively scant regard for democracy. Such analyses also tend to be a bit overblown. The ruling BJP party lost considerable ground in the 2024 general elections indicating that competitive elections continue to remain an important facet of India’s democracy. With India there are far more commonalities to work with in areas of R&D, defense, and trade.

Although Bangladesh under Sheikh Hasina has been moving closer to China, Hasina’s ouster presents a golden opportunity for the U.S. to strengthen ties with Dhaka. Bangladesh’s new leader, the Nobel laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus, has good connections with the U.S. since his days as a graduate student and professor in Tennessee. The U.S. should heed his call for more cooperation in implementing his ambitious reform agenda for the country.

Sri Lanka is another place where the fall of a longstanding political powerhouse has opened the way for the U.S. to step in with full force. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s ouster in 2022 has brought a Sri Lankan government committed to strengthening ties with India. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s first official foreign trip was to India. The U.S. should support India’s involvement in Sri Lanka in tandem with building upon its post-2022 assistance to Sri Lanka. Port development in particular should receive greater attention to counter China’s involvement in this vital area. Sri Lanka’s ports are situated near important shipping routes.

For too long, the U.S. has hoped that sustained engagement would convince Pakistan to modify its behavior. That hope has been unsubstantiated. Washington should focus its diplomacy and limited financial resources on other South Asian nations, where it can expect some return.

Mustafa Chaudhry graduated from Emory University in 2017 with a BA in Political Science and from the London School of Economics in 2018 with an MSc in International Relations. He currently resides in Washington DC. His interests are in Cold War history and the politics of the Middle East and South Asia.