Weekly Recon 29 July 2017

Good Saturday morning and welcome to Weekly Recon. On this day in 1963, Representatives of the United States, the Soviet Union, and Great Britain sign the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which prohibited the testing of nuclear weapons in outer space, underwater, or in the atmosphere. The treaty was hailed as an important first step toward the control of nuclear weapons. France and China were asked to join the agreement but refused. In the years to come, discussions between the United States and the Soviet Union grew to include limits on many nuclear weapons and the elimination of others.

Air Superiority – Russia has moved several multi-role fighters to its Hemyemin Air Base, reshuffling its force structure for the ongoing air war playing out high above Syria. New satellite imagery shows “no less than 20 of Russia's most capable fighters—a mix of Su-27/30/34/35s at the base.”  The imagery dates back to mid-July and shows a shift in focus to more fighter aircraft than ground attack aircraft. This shift in posture follows an earlier downing of a Syrian aircraft by a U.S. Navy F/A-18 in southern Syria, and the tense status quo of Russian and American jets flying in the same air space, which has been described as a “high altitude poker game.” Russian President Vladimir Putin recently signed a law, extending the lease on the air base for another forty-nine years, but his air force is now refusing to flight air support missions for the Assad regime.

More companies joined the OA-X light attack experiment this week. Air Tractor and L3 announced this week that they would take part in the trials, which are set to begin on August 8. This week also saw new criticisms of the program and the Air Force’s intentions. Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute did not mince words, writing, “OA-X is a dumb idea that is going nowhere.” Thompson offers five reasons the concept is “a fantasy,” chief amongst them being that it is one fitted to the battlefield of the 16 years ago, not what the military is expected to face in the near term. Dan Grazier of POGO’s Strauss Military Reform Project sees more sinister intentions underlying the program., arguing it is a final ruse by the Air Force to fully retire the A-10 Warthog and the concept of dedicated close air support aircraft once and for all.

Blue Water Dominance – Some state that size does not matter, but the motion of the ocean dictates that this axiom just does not apply to the U.S. Navy. But how many ships does the U.S. Navy need? McGrath breaks down the debate over fleet size between those who champion capability (i.e. the Obama administration on a technologically advanced, but smaller Navy) v. capacity (i.e. President Trump’s goal of a 350-ship fleet). Between those two polar arguments lies the recipe for the proper fleet cocktail. McGrath argues that a peacetime Navy needs to be present wherever U.S. interests require, thus favoring the capacity argument. McGrath contends that Navy ships need to have the capability to win engagements against adversaries, but that having the capacity to perform presence operations will help deter larger conflicts.

Space Wars – China has taken another step toward the full militarization of space with its recent flight test of its DM-3 anti-satellite missile. When operational, this capability will threaten the U.S. military’s information superiority, which it has long enjoyed. During this recent test, the missile malfunctioned in the upper atmosphere. Despite the failure, China’s is steadily advancing in space. Russia is also advancing its offensive space capabilities, with its most recent anti-satellite missile launch, which took place in December of 2016. The U.S. Air Force is hard at work defending American assets in space, with plans to invest $5.5 billion in research over the next five years. Secretary of the Air Force Heather Wilson has made countering the rapidly advancing anti-satellite weapons of U.S. adversaries one of her top priorities.

The Fifth Domain – The Pentagon is hoping to crack down on the vulnerability of defense contractor data with a new set of guidelines that will take effect on December 31st. These guidelines target contractors that operate using ‘covered defense information’: “a category of data that means unclassified information but data that the Pentagon expects contractors to protect.” Failing to secure this data could preclude companies from working for the Pentagon in the future. Meeting these requirements pose a major financial burden for smaller companies, which could either lead to them avoiding defense business or raising prices to pay for added costs stemming from the guidelines. Sandra Erwin reports for RealClearDefense that some in the industry fear this could stymie competition by forcing smaller companies out of the game due to expensive regulatory barriers to entry.

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